This year’s Major League Baseball amateur draft will get underway on Sunday, July 14. As has been the case in recent years, the draft will coincide with the beginning of the All-Star Game festivities (hosted at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas). The Cleveland Guardians will make the No. 1 pick for the first time in franchise history, having won last winter’s lottery despite just 2% odds.
The Guardians have previously selected No. 2 on five occasions, most recently in 1992, when they drafted right-hander Paul Shuey from the University of North Carolina. Other No. 2 picks made by the Guardians include Steve Dunning, Rick Manning, Greg Swindell, and Mark Lewis. The Guardians have chosen in the top five picks of a draft on five other occasions as well, albeit not since 2013.
Just what does recent history say about the value of the No. 1 pick? To answer that question, let’s revisit each of the last 10 top overall selections.
2023: Paul Skenes, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates used their second No. 1 pick in three years on Skenes, a flamethrower from LSU who recently made his big-league debut and has looked more dominant than possibly even Pittsburgh expected. Skenes established a new signing bonus record, signing for $9.2 million. This class was loaded at the top with several other potentially defensible selections — each of whom, oddly enough, was an outfielder: Dylan Crews (Nationals), Wyatt Langford (Rangers), Max Clark (Tigers), and Walker Jenkins (Twins). One other member of the first round has already reached the majors beyond Skenes and Langford: Angels first baseman Nolan Schanuel.
2022: Jackson Holliday, 2B, Baltimore Orioles
Holliday was part of a loaded prep class that also included Druw Jones, Termarr Johnson, and Elijah Green. Holliday has since separated himself from the pack by putting forth one of the best first full professional seasons in recent memory. He made his big-league debut earlier this spring, and while that didn’t go according to plan, there’s no reason to bail on the idea of him becoming an All-Star infielder in the not-so-distant future. Two other first-rounders from this class have reached the majors: Zach Neto and Jordan Beck, who recently debuted with the Colorado Rockies.
2021: Henry Davis, C, Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates embraced the portfolio approach by selecting Davis at No. 1. To be clear: he was a defensible selection anyway, as a power-hitting backstop, but his willingness to sign for what amounted to the fifth-highest bonus in the class no doubt influenced the Pirates’ decision since it allowed them to draft and sign Anthony Solometo, Bubba Chandler, and Lonnie White. Davis has yet to establish himself at the big-league level, though that’s true for most of the top of this class, including fellow top-five picks Jack Leiter, Marcelo Mayer, and Jackson Jobe. The most productive player from the first round has been Reds infielder Matt McLain, selected from UCLA at No. 17.
2020: Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Detroit Tigers
Torkelson beat out a crop of collegiates that included Heston Kjerstad, Austin Martin, Max Meyer, and Emerson Hancock for the top spot. Torkelson has since had his moments, including a 31-homer effort last season, but he’s yet to truly develop into the middle-of-the-order masher that he was expected to become on draft night. There’s still time for a turnaround. The most productive players in this round to date have been lefty Reid Detmers (No. 10, Angels) and infielder Jordan Westburg (No. 33, Orioles). Go figure.
2019: Adley Rutschman, C, Baltimore Orioles
Rutschman, an Oregon State product, became the first catcher selected with the top overall pick since Joe Mauer nearly two decades earlier. It’s not a premature judgment to rule this one a success. Rutschman has been one of the most productive backstops in the majors since debuting in 2022. With the benefit of hindsight, the Orioles would have had trouble making a “bad” pick, per se. The top of this draft also included Bobby Witt Jr., Riley Greene, and CJ Abrams.
2018: Casey Mize, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Each of the first five selections in this class were used on collegiates. That included Mize, a right-hander from Auburn with a devastating splitter who the Tigers envisioned as a frontline starter. Although Mize has been limited by injury, he has been an above-average starter when healthy, albeit not one who stands out in a strikeout-happy league. The rest of the top five was rounded out by catcher Joey Bart, third baseman Alec Bohm, infielder Nick Madrigal, and infielder Jonathan India.
2017: Royce Lewis, INF, Minnesota Twins
Lewis was just the third No. 1 pick in Twins franchise history, joining Joe Mauer and Tim Belcher (who did not sign). There’s no denying that Lewis is an immense talent, one who could well make an All-Star Game or two before his playing days are over. Alas, his career outputs have been suppressed by unrelenting injuries. The rest of the top five in this class is made up of pitchers Hunter Greene, MacKenzie Gore, and Kyle Wright, and two-way player Brendan McKay.
2016: Mickey Moniak, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies used the franchise’s second ever No. 1 pick on Moniak, a California prep outfielder with a promising array of tools. It’s fair to write that selection didn’t work out as desired. Moniak has, with rare exception, struggled to establish himself as a big-league-caliber outfielder. The Phillies traded him to the Los Angeles Angels in 2022 in exchange for rental starter Noah Syndergaard. If there’s good news here, it’s that most of the top of that draft has disappointed, including No. 2 pick Nick Senzel, No. 4 pick Riley Pint, and No. 5 pick Corey Ray. Ian Anderson, the No. 3 pick, has and almost certainly will remain the most accomplished player chosen in the top five.
2015: Dansby Swanson, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
Swanson, who edged out fellow collegiate infielder Alex Bregman for the honors of going No. 1, didn’t have a long stay with the Diamondbacks. He was traded to the Atlanta Braves as part of a package deal for right-hander Shelby Miller nearly six months to the day later. Swanson would make his big-league debut in 2016. After several middling seasons, he started to blossom into the kind of player you’d expect from the top spot in the draft. Swanson has since made two All-Star Games, won two Gold Glove Awards, and received Most Valuable Player Award consideration on three occasions.
2014: Brady Aiken, LHP, Houston Astros
Aiken was the third of three consecutive No. 1 picks made by the Astros, but he never joined shortstop Carlos Correa or right-hander Mark Appel in the organization. Rather, Aiken declined to sign after the Astros lowered their offer following a physical that discovered an irregular ulnar collateral ligament. Aiken would be selected by the Cleveland Guardians with the No. 17 pick the following summer. Unfortunately, injuries derailed his career and he retired after 43 professional appearances, none more recent than 2019. The Astros received the No. 2 pick in the subsequent draft as compensation, which they used that selection to choose the aforementioned Alex Bregman.
