Bears at Buccaneers picks: Point spread, total, player props, trends for Tom Brady vs. Justin Fields

The Buccaneers and Bears will square off at Raymond James Stadium in the late afternoon window on Sunday. These two NFC squads went toe to toe last season and it was the Bears who came out on top in Chicago. That was also the game where Tom Brady went viral for forgetting what down it was on the final play of the game. Well, that loss didn’t seem to rattle Tampa Bay much as the Bucs went on to win the Super Bowl and are seemingly in the driver’s seat to contend for a Lombardi Trophy yet again after starting the year off 5-1. Meanwhile, the Bears are a much different team than they were a season ago, specifically under center with first-round rookie Justin Fields now leading the way. 

In this space, we’re going to specifically take a look at all the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Along with the spread and total, we’ll dive into a number of player props that catch out eye for this matchup and reveal which way were a leaning. 

All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

How to watch

Date: Sunday, Oct. 24 | Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Buccaneers -12.5, O/U 47

Line movement

Latest Odds:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay opened as a double-digit favorite with the spread initially sitting at Buccaneers -10.5, but bumped up to 12.5 in the aftermath of Week 6. That advantage did go as high as 13.5 but has since settled back down to 12.5 heading into the weekend. 

The pick: Buccaneers -12.5. Chicago has largely found success this season by leaning on the ground game. Over the last three weeks, the Bears’ 34 rushing attempts per game are the second-highest in all of the NFL. That proves to be a huge mismatch when looking at a Buccaneers front seven that is dominant against the run. Tampa Bay is allowing a league-low 54.8 rushing yards per game this season and that has been even better over the last three weeks (46 yards per game). With the Bucs having the ability to take away Chicago’s key area of attack on offense, they should be able to clear this large spread. 

Key trend: Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games. 

Over/Under total

The total has been dragged down a bit after opening at 48.5. It did climb to 49 for a moment but has since dipped all the way to 47 by Friday. 

The pick: Under 47. I don’t see a clear path to the Bears finding consistency on offense in this matchup. While Tampa Bay’s secondary can be had, Fields has only gone over 200 yards passing in one of his four starts. The Bucs can always hang 40 on an opponent, but this could be a game where they lean on Leonard Fournette in the second half to churn out a victory after building up a solid cushion. 

Key trend: Under is 5-0 in the Bears last five games. 

Player props to consider

Darnell Mooney longest reception: Over 20.5 (-120). Mooney has seen five targets this season 20-plus yards down the field with an ADOT of 23.4. He’s hauled in three of them for an average of 39 yards per reception. The Bucs have allowed 28 catches of 20-plus yards this season, which is the second-most in the NFL. 

Leonard Fournette total rushing yards: Over 63.5 (-115). Fournette has gone over this total in each of his last three games and Chicago just let the Packers total 154 yards on the ground on 5 yards per carry last week. 

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