Bucks vs. Heat odds, line, spread: 2020 NBA picks, March 2 predictions from model on 47-30 roll

The Milwaukee Bucks (52-8) will look to continue their torrid pace with a difficult challenge on Monday evening. Just one day after the Bucks picked up a win in Charlotte, Milwaukee will aim to knock off the Miami Heat (38-22) on the road. Khris Middleton (neck) has missed the last two games for the Bucks, leaving some uncertainty about his status for this high-end tilt. On Miami’s side, the Heat will be without Tyler Herro (ankle) and Meyers Leonard (ankle) in this game. 

Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Arena. Sportsbooks list Milwaukee as a 3.5-point road favorite, up slightly from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 226.5 in the latest Bucks vs. Heat odds. Before making any Heat vs. Bucks picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated spread and money line picks. It’s already returned well over $3,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 19 a blistering 47-30 on all top-rated spread picks this season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Heat. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are the NBA odds and trends for Heat vs. Bucks:

  • Bucks vs. Heat spread: Bucks -3.5
  • Bucks vs. Heat over-under: 226.5 points
  • Bucks vs. Heat money line: Bucks -161, Heat +135
  • MIL: The Bucks are 9-3 against the spread in the last 12 games
  • MIA: The Heat are 3-8 against the spread in the last 11 games

Why the Bucks can cover

The model has factored in that the Bucks are the NBA’s best team in every all-in-one metric, and that efficiency stems from tremendous work on both ends of the floor. Milwaukee leads the NBA in points allowed per possession defensively, and Mike Budenholzer’s club also has the best shooting efficiency allowed in the sport. 

The Bucks are also one of the best teams in the NBA in keeping opponents off the free-throw line, which could be a key trait against a Miami team that relies heavily on work at the charity stripe. Offensively, Milwaukee is also fantastic, leading the NBA in shooting efficiency and landing at No. 2 overall in points per possession. In short, the Bucks are exceptional, and their performance level has traveled well this season.

Why the Heat can cover

Even so, Milwaukee isn’t a lock to cover the Bucks vs. Heat spread. The model also knows that the Heat are a stellar home team, posting a 25-4 record in their own building this season. Miami is the best team in the NBA at generating free throws and, with a top-five mark in shooting efficiency, the Heat are a strongly above-average offensive team. 

They’ll need to be proficient on that side of the ball to have success against Milwaukee, and the Heat are led by a two-headed monster of Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Butler averages 20.8 points, 6.8 rebounds and 6.2 assists per game, with Adebayo adding 16.2 points, 10.5 rebounds, 5.1 assists and elite-level defense. Miami is an excellent defensive rebounding team, with the ability to close possessions at a high rate.

How to make Bucks vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Butler projected to fall short of their scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations.

So who wins Bucks vs. Heat and which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Bucks spread you need to jump on Monday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

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