Bucks vs. Nuggets odds, line, spread: 2020 NBA picks, March 9 predictions from model on 49-31 roll

The Milwaukee Bucks (53-11) will face a tough challenge on Monday evening with a visit to Colorado to face the Denver Nuggets (42-21). Giannis Antetokounmpo will be out with a knee injury, and the Bucks will be on the second night of a back-to-back set. The Nuggets project to be at full strength from an injury standpoint.

Tip-off is at 9 p.m. ET at Pepsi Center. Sportsbooks list Denver as a 3.5-point home favorite, up a point from the opening lin, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 221.5 in the latest Bucks vs. Nuggets odds. Before making any Nuggets vs. Bucks picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned almost $4,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season. It also entered Week 20 a blistering 49-31 on all top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Nuggets. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Nuggets vs. Bucks:

  • Bucks vs. Nuggets spread: Nuggets -3.5
  • Bucks vs. Nuggets over-under: 221.5 points
  • Bucks vs. Nuggets money line: Nuggets -169, Bucks +140
  • MIL: The Bucks are 1-4 against the spread in the last five games
  • DEN: The Nuggets are 2-7 against the spread in the last nine games

Why the Bucks can cover

The model has considered that the Bucks are in a difficult scheduling spot on a back-to-back but, in short, Milwaukee has the best statistical profile of any NBA team. That is backed up by the NBA’s best overall record, and Milwaukee’s defense is elite by any measure. The Bucks lead the league in points allowed per possession, and they are also the best team in the NBA in shooting efficiency allowed and defensive rebounding. 

On the opposite side, the Bucks are a top-three team in total offense and they have an effective shooting profile, landing No. 2 in the league in shooting efficiency. Milwaukee issues a turnover on only 14 percent of their possessions and, against a Nuggets team that has a propensity to send opponents to the free-throw line at an alarming, bottom-10 rate, the Bucks should be able to get to the charity stripe on the road.

Why the Nuggets can cover

Even so, Milwaukee isn’t a lock to cover the Bucks vs. Nuggets spread. The model also has considered that the Nuggets have a stellar home record this season, winning 24 of 32 games at the Pepsi Center. Denver is one of the NBA’s best offensive rebounding teams, securing 28.5 percent of their own missed shots this season, and that could be an avenue to success against Milwaukee’s stellar defense. 

The Nuggets are also a top-12 team in the league in shooting, efficiency, turnover avoidance and points per possession. Defensively, Denver sometimes has issues in rebounding, but the Bucks rank No. 28 in the NBA in offensive rebounding, grabbing only 22.9 percent of their own misses this season. Finally, the Nuggets enter on regular rest, with the Bucks arriving in Denver without their superstar on the second night of a challenging back-to-back set.

How to make Bucks vs. Nuggets picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with Nikola Jokic projected to fall short of his scoring average and Antetokounmpo out of the lineup. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value.

So who wins Bucks vs. Nuggets? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Bucks spread you need to jump on Monday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

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