Bucks vs. Thunder odds, line, spread: 2020 NBA picks, Feb. 28 predictions from model on 47-30 roll

The Milwaukee Bucks (50-8) enter Friday evening with an unblemished 4-0 mark since the All-Star break, but Mike Budenolzer’s team will face a stiff test against the Oklahoma City Thunder (37-22). Giannis Antetokounmpo (back) is probable to play for the Bucks, with Kyle Korver (back) ruled out for the contest. 

Tip-off is at 8 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum. Sportsbooks list the Bucks as 10.5-point home favorites, holding steady from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 229 in the latest Bucks vs. Thunder odds. Before making any Thunder vs. Bucks picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated spread and money line picks. It’s already returned well over $3,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 19 a blistering 47-30 on all top-rated spread picks this season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Thunder. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are the NBA odds and trends for Thunder vs. Bucks:

  • Bucks vs. Thunder spread: Bucks -10.5
  • Bucks vs. Thunder over-under: 229 points
  • Bucks vs. Thunder money line: Bucks -623, Thunder +450
  • OKC: The Thunder are 12-2 against the spread in their last 12 road games
  • MIL: The Bucks are 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why the Thunder can cover

The model knows that the Thunder have played at an impressive level in the last few months, establishing themselves as a full-fledged playoff team. Oklahoma City is led by an above-average offense, with top-10 marks in shooting efficiency and avoiding turnovers. Milwaukee’s defense is tremendous, but the Bucks don’t create turnovers at a high level, playing into the strength of the Thunder. 

In addition, Oklahoma City is the NBA’s best team at generating free-throw attempts, which could help to tilt the scales in its direction. The Thunder will have their hands full against Milwaukee’s offense, but Billy Donovan’s team is above-average overall on that end off the floor, largely due to elite metrics in preventing free-throw attempts and stellar resistance at the point of attack.

Why the Bucks can cover

Even so, OKC isn’t a lock to cover the Bucks vs. Thunder spread. The model has also considered that Milwaukee is the best team in the NBA and Antetokounmpo is the center of everything. Antetokounmpo is averaging 29.3 points, 13.7 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game, all while playing far fewer minutes than a typical superstar. He also brings defensive value at an elite level, and Antetokounmpo is flanked by another top-tier offensive option in Khris Middleton. 

The Bucks, who are 26-3 at home, are tremendous on both ends of the floor, including the No. 1 defense in the NBA. Milwaukee leads the league in shooting efficiency allowed and defensive rebounding, with the ability to dominate on the offensive side, including the league’s best shooting profile. 

How to make Bucks vs. Thunder picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, with Danilo Gallinari and Brook Lopez projected to outperform their scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value.

So who wins Bucks vs. Thunder? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Thunder vs. Bucks spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

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