Celtics vs. Cavaliers odds, line, spread: 2020 NBA picks, March 4 predictions from model on 49-31 run

Kevin Love and the Cleveland Cavaliers will host Marcus Smart and the Boston Celtics on Wednesday evening. Both teams are dealing with a plethora of injuries heading into Wednesday’s contest. For Boston, Jayson Tatum (illness) and Kemba Walker (knee) have already been ruled out, while Gordon Hayward (knee) and Jaylen Brown (hamstring) are both questionable. Cleveland is set to be without Andre Drummond (calf), Darius Garland (groin), and Dante Exum (ankle), while Tristan Thompson (knee) is questionable.

Tip-off is set for 7 p.m ET from the Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse. Sportsbooks list Boston as 2.5-point road favorites, while the over-under for total points scored is 216.5 in the latest Celtics vs. Cavaliers odds. Before you make any Cavaliers vs. Celtics picks or NBA predictions, you should see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned almost $4,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season. It also entered Week 20 a blistering 49-31 on all top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Celtics vs. Cavaliers. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and trends for Cavaliers vs. Celtics:

  • Celtics vs. Cavaliers spread: Celtics -2.5
  • Celtics vs. Cavaliers over-under: 216.5 points
  • Celtics vs. Cavaliers money line: Boston -132, Cleveland +110
  • BOS: The Celtics have the NBA’s best ATS cover rate at 61 percent.
  • CLE: The Cavs are 3-14 in their last 17 games at home.

Why the Celtics can cover

The model is well aware that even without some of its main pieces, this Boston team is far superior to an also-banged-up Cavaliers squad. Cleveland ranks second-to-last in point differential and its 46 percent against-the-spread cover rate is a far cry from Boston’s league-best 61 percent mark. The Cavs have been even worse at covering the spread when playing at home, covering just 38.7 percent of the time.

With several players out on each side, the difference in depth between a playoff team and a tanking Cavs squad will be on full display. Boston has had to develop a next-man-up mentality this season, as Walker, Hayward, and Brown have all been plagued by their own battles with injury throughout the year. Players like Smart, Daniel Theis, and Brad Wanamaker have proven capable of stepping up when needed, so expect them to be ready for another opportunity on Wednesday.

Why the Cavaliers can cover

Even so, Boston isn’t guaranteed to cover the Cavaliers vs. Celtics spread on Wednesday. The model is well aware that while Boston has dealt with numerous injuries this season, the Celtics aren’t accustomed to replacing Tatum’s production. Walker, Brown, and Hayward are more easily replaced, as Boston has several players capable of creating offense from the perimeter. But the one constant for the Celtics while dealing with injuries to those three has been Tatum.

Tatum has missed just five games this season, and Boston is 1-4 ATS when he doesn’t play. That bodes well for Cleveland’s chances to pull off the upset on its home floor on Wednesday night. 

How to make Celtics vs. Cavaliers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total. In fact, the model is projecting Love, Smart, and Collin Sexton all to finish above their scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in nearly 70 percent of simulations. You can only see that one at SportsLine.

So who wins Cavaliers vs. Celtics? And which side of the spread hits in nearly 70 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Celtics vs. Cavaliers spread you need to jump on Wednesday, all from the model on a 49-31 roll, and find out.

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