Chiefs vs. Bills expert picks, odds: Player props, spread, points total, how to watch AFC Championship Game


The stage is set at Arrowhead Stadium for the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills to go toe-to-toe with the winner heading to Tampa for Super Bowl LV. After Patrick Mahomes exited the divisional round due to injury, Chad Henne was able to help K.C. keep its hopes of a repeat alive by hanging on to beat the Browns. Meanwhile, Buffalo held Baltimore to just three points en-route to a win, putting the Bills on the doorstep of their first Super Bowl appearance since 1993. 

Below, we’re going to dive into all the different betting angles that this game has to offer. As well as picks surrounding the spread and total from our CBS Sports and SportsLine experts, you’ll also get some of the inside scoop on our favorite prop bets for this exciting matchup to wrap up Championship Sunday. 

All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.  

How to watch

Date: SundayJan. 24 | Time: 6:40 p.m. ET 
Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri) 
TV: CBS | Stream: CBS All Access
Follow: CBS Sports App

Bills at Chiefs spread picks

Latest Odds:

Kansas City Chiefs
-3

“The Bills have been much better on defense since the midway point of the season. Coordinator Leslie Frazier has done a nice job. As for Buffalo’s offense, Josh Allen didn’t put up his usual gaudy numbers last week against the Ravens, but he made enough plays. It was a windy night. If the weather holds up here — and Mahomes is in the game — this could be a great shootout of two big-armed passers. Both defenses have improved since the Chiefs beat the Bills in Week 6, a game where Kansas City ran the football to win it. Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran for 161 in Kansas City’s 26-17 victory. This time around, I think it’s more of an air game with both quarterbacks having good games. I picked the Chiefs to get to the Super Bowl before the season and I am sticking with that. But it will be close — even with Mahomes.” — Pete Prisco on how Kansas City edges out a 31-30 win over Buffalo

“Josh Allen has been playing at an MVP-level all year and I think he can outduel a banged-up Mahomes. I’m picking the Bills here and if they win, there’s a 50% chance I’ll jump through a flaming folding table in my backyard to celebrate their first Super Bowl appearance since 1993. My neighbors will probably call the police, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take.” — John Breech on why he likes Buffalo by a field goal.

In his bold predictions piece for the divisional round, CBS Sports’ Cody Benjamin has Bills receiver Stefon Diggs approaching 200 yards receiving in this game against the Chiefs. To read the rest of Cody’s bold predictions (plus a prediction for this game), click here

“I’ve been saying this for at least the entire second half of the season: Buffalo is one of the few teams in the AFC that can match the offensive firepower of the Chiefs. The emergence of Josh Allen gives the Bills the ability to match Patrick Mahomes and the Cheifs throw-for-throw, which makes this a particularly tough draw for the defending champs. … When you have Mahomes possibly going at less than full speed, it only adds to the desire to lean towards Buffalo. After all, the Bills are the much hotter team coming into this AFC title game. They are 12-6 ATS on the season, while Kansas City is below .500 in that regard at 7-10 ATS.” — Tyler Sullivan explains why he likes Buffalo by a touchdown, 30-23

SportsLine senior analyst and NFL expert Larry Hartstein has his finger of the pulse of the Chiefs, owning a 16-2 record against the spread in picks involving Kansas City. He nailed Cleveland +10 last week and now has made his determination as to which way he’s leaning for the AFC Championship. To find out, you’ll have to head over the SportsLine. 

Bills at Chiefs total picks

“While I don’t foresee points being hard to come by, I do pause slightly about this total going Over. While Patrick Mahomes is good to go for this game, if he is limited in any way, that brings the Chiefs ceiling for a big day on offense down. That’s also not mentioning that Kansas City could lean on a rushing attack to try and beat Buffalo. Back in Week 6, Clyde Edwards-Helaire posted 161 yards rushing against this unit and Andy Reid could deploy a similar attack to help a hobbled Mahomes get through the game. The Under is also 9-8 for the Chiefs this season. As for the Bills, their offense is averaging 22 points per game through two playoff contests. While that’s a small sample size, it’s nearly 10 points below their regular-season average. ”  — Tyler Sullivan on why he’s leaning towards the Under with a projected total of 53. 

Best prop picks

  • Josh Allen first touchdown scorer (+900) — SportsLine managing editor R.J. White (via Pick Six Podcast)
  • Josh Allen last touchdown scorer (+900) — SportsLine managing editor R.J. White (via Pick Six Podcast) 
  • John Brown total receiving yards: Over 52.5 yards (-115) — CBS Sports’ Dave Richard: “Brown’s receiving Over was one of the bets I managed to get right last week. It helped that he had 11 targets, tied for his season-high. The hunch is that the Bills throw a bunch on the Chiefs (they barely run the ball anyway). Brown should have opportunities to pick up chunks of yardage. I honestly think this line is at least 10 yards too low. I also want to put it out here that Cole Beasley’s receiving yardage prop is also of interest if it’s around this number or less.” 
  • Travis Kelce to score a TD and the Chiefs to win (+170) CBS Sports’ Dave Richard: “The guy who has a dozen touchdowns this season finding the end zone in a game his team is favored? Why not invest in that combo? It seems economically better than taking Kelce’s anytime TD prop at minus-125 and the Chiefs money line at minus-170 separately. The odds are slightly off from what a traditional parlay would pay (plus-186), but it feels about as safe as you can get. Or, if for some reason you’re not thrilled with Kelce, you could do the same version of this wager with Tyreek Hill scoring, and it pays plus-175.”





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