Chiefs vs. Bills odds, line, spread: Sunday Night Football picks, predictions from model on 124-82 run

The Buffalo Bills own a slight advantage in their all-time series against the Kansas City Chiefs, as they have posted a 26-23-1 overall record and a 2-2 mark in the postseason. Kansas City has had the upper hand of late, winning five of the last six meetings, including last year’s AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs will look to continue their recent dominance when they host the Bills on Sunday Night Football. Kansas City (2-2) is coming off a 42-30 victory at Philadelphia, while Buffalo (3-1) demolished Houston 40-0 in Week 4 for its third consecutive victory.

Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a three-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Bills odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 56.5. Before locking in any Bills vs. Chiefs picks and NFL predictions, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 5 of the 2021 season on an incredible 124-82 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bills vs. Chiefs. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NFL betting lines and trends for Chiefs vs. Bills:

  • Chiefs vs. Bills spread: Kansas City -3
  • Chiefs vs. Bills over-under: 56.5 points
  • Chiefs vs. Bills money line: Kansas City -150, Buffalo +130
  • KC: Chiefs are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight home games
  • BUF: Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings with Kansas City

Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills

Why Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs can cover

Buffalo is unlikely to post its third shutout of the 2021 NFL season since Kansas City is tied for second in scoring at 33.5 points per game. The Chiefs have recorded at least 24 points in every contest thus far and lead the league with 14 passing touchdowns. Patrick Mahomes threw three scoring passes in his first three games this year before erupting for five in last weekend’s victory over the Eagles.

The 26-year-old Mahomes became the fifth quarterback in NFL history with at least three TD passes in each of his first four games of a season, joining Dan Marino, Steve Young, Kurt Warner, and Tom Brady. Wide receiver Tyreek Hill hauled in three of Mahomes’ TD tosses in Week 4, tying him for second in the league with four scoring receptions. The 27-year-old speedster gained 186 yards on 11 catches, making him the fifth player ever to have five 180-yard performances in his first six NFL seasons.

Why Josh Allen and the Bills can cover

Buffalo is proving it can keep up with Kansas City’s potent offense, as it is tied with the Chiefs for second in scoring at 33.5 points per contest. Since their 23-16 season-opening loss to Pittsburgh, the Bills have outscored their opponents 118-21 during their three-game winning streak. Each of Buffalo’s last 10 regular-season victories has been by double digits, with the last six being by at least 20 points. Its last three road wins were by 29 or more.

The Bills have been even better on the other side of the ball this season, as they enter Sunday first in total defense (216.8 yards), passing defense (148.8) and scoring defense (11 points). With last week’s triumph over Houston, Buffalo joined the 1991 Washington Redskins and 2000 Baltimore Ravens as the only teams since 1990 to post two shutouts in their first four games of a season. The Bills, who trounced Miami 35-0 in Week 2, are the first team since the 2009 New York Jets to record a pair of shutouts by at least 35 points in one season.

How to make Chiefs vs. Bills picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with both teams projected to combine for 55 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Chiefs vs. Bills on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Bills vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model that’s 124-82 on its NFL picks, and find out.

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