Chiefs vs. Bills player props, best bets, picks: Josh Allen goes under 306.5 passing yards in AFC Championship

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have strong rosters built around two of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the NFL and on Sunday they’ll go head-to-head in the 2021 AFC Championship Game. The game kicks off in Arrowhead Stadium at 6:40 p.m. ET. Patrick Mahomes (concussion protocol) has been cleared, settling up a showdown against Josh Allen. The Chiefs are three-point favorites with the over-under at 54 in the latest NFL odds, but William Hill Sportsbook also has dozens of Chiefs vs. Bills player props available for play.

Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs are two of the best big-play wide receivers in the NFL and they’re listed at -120 and +110, respectively, to get into the end zone on Sunday, according to current 2021 AFC Championship Game prop odds. Is either receiver a value to score at those odds and what other NFL player props should you be all over in a battle between two of the most efficient offenses in the NFL? Before locking in any NFL prop bets for Sunday’s 2021 AFC Championship Game, you need to see the Bills vs. Chiefs prop predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters Wild Card Weekend on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

With the 2021 AFC Championship Game on Sunday, the model has evaluated the NFL player props from William Hill and found five strong bets. You can only see them here.

Top NFL player prop bets for 2021 AFC Championship Game

The model says Allen goes well under 306.5 passing yards (-115), predicting that he throws for nearly 50 yards less than that on average. Allen put himself in MVP contention with 4,544 passing yards and 37 touchdowns against just 10 interceptions, while rushing for another 421 yards and eight scores. He might be the most improved player in the league after making enormous strides as a passer in his third year as a starter.

However, recent trends and the matchups don’t seem to bode well with such a lofty target yardage in play here. Allen threw the ball 37 times last week in a win over the Ravens, but a tough defense and windy conditions left him with only 206 passing yards at the end of the day. That’s the second time in three games he’s failed to clear 225 passing yards and the forecast for Sunday calls for temperatures in the 30s, possible precipitation and double-digit winds as he takes on a Chiefs defense that held him to 122 passing yards in Week 6.

The model also says Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce goes well under 95.5 receiving yards (-115), predicting that he falls nearly 15 yards short of that mark. Kelce is in the middle of a five-game stretch where he’s had at least seven receptions and a touchdown and is averaging 109.4 yards per game during that span, so it makes sense that his over-under has ballooned to nearly 100 yards.

However, Mike Gesicki is the only tight end who had 96 yards or better against the Buffalo defense this season and Kelce only managed 65 yards (though he did score twice) back in Week 6 against the Bills. The same weather concerns that could plague Allen are also in play for Kelce and the Kansas City passing attack, making the under the value play on this prop. 

How to make NFL player prop bets for Chiefs vs. Bills

In addition, the model is high on a first-touchdown prop that delivers a huge return. You need to see the model’s analysis before making any 2021 AFC Championship Game prop bets for Sunday.

Which Chiefs vs. Bills prop bet offers a huge return? And what other prop bets does the model love for Sunday’s 2021 AFC Championship Game? Visit SportsLine now to see the top AFC Championship Game prop bets, all from the model that’s up almost $7,900 on top-rated NFL picks.

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