Chiefs vs. Chargers odds, line, spread: 2020 NFL picks, predictions from model on 100-65 roll

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs visit the sparkling new SoFi Stadium on Sunday to face the Los Angeles Chargers. Both teams opened with victories, with Kansas City kicking off the season by beating the Texans 34-20 and the Chargers edging the Bengals 16-13. The defending Super Bowl champions got a big boost from rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who gives a loaded offense another dimension. Los Angeles relied on an opportunistic defense in its first game since longtime quarterback Philip Rivers moved on. 

Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET in Los Angeles. Kansas City is an 8.5-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Chargers odds at William Hill, while the over-under is 47.5. Before you make any Chargers vs. Chiefs picks of your own, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,400 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception five years ago. It went a perfect 4-0 on top-rated NFL picks in Week 1, including calling easy covers by the Ravens and Bills. The model enters Week 2 on an incredible 100-65 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Chargers. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL odds from William Hill and trends for Chargers vs. Chiefs:

  • Chiefs vs. Chargers spread: Kansas City: -8.5
  • Chiefs vs. Chargers over-under: 47.5
  • Chiefs vs. Chargers money line: Kansas City -410, Los Angeles +330 
  • KC: TE Travis Kelce had at least three receptions in all 19 games last season
  • LAC: RB Austin Ekeler topped 60 receiving yards eight times last season.

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City is 6-0 against the spread in its past six after scoring 30 points or more in the previous game, and the Mahomes-led offense can make defenses sweat. The Super Bowl MVP threw for 4,031 yards and 26 touchdowns last season, but he had just 211 yards in the opener as Edwards-Helaire took over. The rookie out of LSU ran for 138 yards and a touchdown to go with Mahomes’ three scoring passes. 

The Chiefs are 10-1-1 against the spread in their last 12 games overall, and the champs returned 20 of 22 starters, including receivers Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman.

Any one can break out at any time, but Mahomes’ favorite target is tight end Travis Kelce, an All-Pro after leading the team with 1,229 yards last season. The defense is led by Chris Jones (1.5 sacks in opener) and Frank Clark up front and Tyrann Mathieu in the secondary. 

Why the Chargers can cover

Los Angeles is 7-3-2 in its past 12 games as an underdog, and Tyrod Taylor is holding down the quarterback spot until rookie Justin Herbert is ready. The veteran was mistake-free in throwing for 208 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions against Cincinnati, and his legs can get him out of trouble. He has reliable options in receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, who both topped 1,000 yards last season and combined for 106 in Sunday’s victory.

Tight end Hunter Henry, who had 55 receptions last season, led the team with 73 yards in the opener, including a 33-yard catch that sparked a stagnant offense. Running back Austin Ekeler is dangerous as both a runner and a receiver, and he caught 92 passes for 993 yards last season. The fourth-year pro had one catch against the Bengals but ran for 84 yards. The defensive tone is set by Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, who combined for 18.5 sacks in 2019.

How to make Chiefs vs. Chargers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, as Mahomes throws for more than 275 yards and Ekeler approaches 100 total yards. It also says one side of the spread cashes in nearly 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine

So who wins Chargers vs. Chiefs? And which side of the spread is hitting almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Chargers spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $7,400 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.

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