College football odds, lines, picks, bets, predictions for Week 5, 2021: Model backing Florida, Cincinnati

A trio of intriguing top-15 matchups highlight the Week 5 college football schedule. Top-ranked Alabama is a 14.5-point favorite at Caesars Sportsbook against No. 12 Ole Miss in the Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET SEC on CBS matchup. No. 2 Georgia is -18.5 against No. 8 Arkansas. And stepping outside the SEC, one of the top nonconference games of the season unfolds when No. 7 Cincinnati (-2.5) visits No. 9 Notre Dame in a matchup with massive implications for the College Football Playoff picture.

Which of the Week 5 college football spreads have value? And which other college football lines should you be targeting as conference play continues to heat up around the nation? Before making any Week 5 college football picks, be sure to see the latest college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,300 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. After going a sizzling 9-3 in Week 4, It also enters Week 5 of the 2021 season on a 81-61 run on all top-rated college football picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 5 college football odds from Caesars and locked in picks for every FBS matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 5 college football predictions

One of the top college football picks the model is recommending for Week 5: No. 10 Florida covers (-8) at Kentucky in a 6 p.m. ET matchup on Saturday. The Gators have owned this SEC East series historically, losing to Kentucky just once since 1986. They’ve also lost just once in Lexington since 1976. 

Florida won in Gainesville 34-10 last year, and the model is calling for another double-digit victory. The Gators started the season a bit slow, but they pushed Alabama to the brink in an easy cover two weeks ago and then handled a 19-point spread against Tennessee last week. The model shows contributions from both Florida quarterbacks — Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson — as the Gators cover in well over 50 percent of simulations. The under (55) hits in more than 60 percent of simulations. 

Another one of the college football predictions from the model: Cincinnati (-2.5) picks up the win and cover at Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are hoping to get quarterback Jack Coan back from an ankle injury. But you can expect his mobility to be compromised either way, which should help out an already stingy Bearcats defense.

The model is projecting just 21 points for Notre Dame. That helps the Bearcats cover in well over 50 percent of simulations. It also is a factor in the under (51) hitting with several points to spare, making those strong picks and a nice parlay option for Week 5. 

How to make Week 5 college football picks 

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 5 college football schedule, and it’s calling for a Top 25 favorite to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what college football picks can you make with confidence? And which Top 25 favorite goes down hard? Check out the latest college football odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,300 in profit over the past five-plus seasons, and find out.

Week 5 college football odds (via Caesars)

Here are the college football lines for some of Week 5’s most notable matchups:

Thursday, Sept. 30

Virginia vs. Miami (FL) (-3.5, 62)

Featured Game | Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs. Virginia Cavaliers

Friday, Oct. 1

Houston vs. Tulsa (-3.5, 57)

Featured Game | Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. Houston Cougars

Iowa vs. Maryland (+3.5, 46)

Featured Game | Maryland Terrapins vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

BYU vs. Utah State (+8.5, 58.5)

Featured Game | Utah State Aggies vs. BYU Cougars

Saturday, Oct. 2

Arkansas vs. Georgia (-18.5, 48.5) 

Featured Game | Georgia Bulldogs vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

Michigan vs. Wisconsin (-1, 43.5)

Featured Game | Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines

Louisville vs. Wake Forest (-6.5, 60.5)

Featured Game | Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Louisville Cardinals

UL Monroe vs. Coastal Carolina (-34.5)

Cincinnati vs. Notre Dame (+2.5, 51)

Featured Game | Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Cincinnati Bearcats

Ohio State vs. Rutgers (+15.5, 56.5)

Ole Miss vs. Alabama (-14.5, 77.5)

Featured Game | Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Ole Miss Rebels

Oklahoma vs. Kansas State (+10.5, 52.5)

Featured Game | Kansas State Wildcats vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Oregon vs. Stanford (+8, 58)

Featured Game | Stanford Cardinal vs. Oregon Ducks

Florida vs. Kentucky (+8, 55)

Featured Game | Kentucky Wildcats vs. Florida Gators

Louisiana Tech vs. NC State (-19.5, 55)

Featured Game | NC State Wolfpack vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Baylor vs. Oklahoma State (-4, 49.5)

Featured Game | Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Baylor Bears

Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M (-7, 47.5)

Featured Game | Texas A&M Aggies vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs

Boston College vs. Clemson (-16, 47.5)

Featured Game | Clemson Tigers vs. Boston College Eagles

Western Kentucky vs. Michigan State (-10.5)

Featured Game | Michigan State Spartans vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Indiana vs. Penn State (-10.5, 52.5)

Featured Game | Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Indiana Hoosiers

Auburn vs. LSU (-3.5)

Featured Game | LSU Tigers vs. Auburn Tigers

Arizona State vs. UCLA (-3, 55.5)

Featured Game | UCLA Bruins vs. Arizona State Sun Devils

Fresno State vs. Hawaii (+10, 62.5)

Featured Game | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Fresno State Bulldogs

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