Heading into Week 7, our opinion of the contenders is rounding into form. Georgia is a death machine and it’s foolish to doubt them. Iowa and Cincinnati won’t let you score. The rest of the field is susceptible to chaos. Still, there are two betting favorites in the AP Top 25 that could be vulnerable this weekend.
Each week, potential upsets are picked based on favorable matchups, context (i.e. location, rivalries, look-ahead games) or just good ol’ fashion gut feel. For maximum effect, a spread of at least three points is required for consideration – the bigger, the better.
Week 6 kept the momentum going with East Carolina and Arkansas covering needlessly big lines. Unfortunately, the biggest upset of the year – unranked Texas A&M over No. 1 Alabama, the first unranked over No. 1 upset since 2008 — wasn’t on the radar. Additionally, it may be time to set Stanford adrift after a three-score loss against Arizona State. Still, we’ll take treading water for now. This round of upset picks are even more aggressive. On to Week 7!
Important disclaimer: “upset” is defined first and foremost by the odds, not rankings.
No. 12 Oklahoma State at No. 25 Texas
When: Saturday, 12 p.m. ET | Where: Austin, Texas
Latest Odds: Texas Longhorns -5.5
Texas is fresh off one of the most crushing losses in Red River Showdown history, blowing a 21-point lead against Oklahoma. The Longhorns return home, but don’t expect for things to get easier. Oklahoma State has perhaps the nation’s most underrated defense. The Cowboys are giving up just 18.6 points per game thanks to a physical front seven. An emotional hangover could quickly lead to disaster in Austin, especially since the Longhorns could be without starting receiver Jordan Whittington. ATS: Oklahoma State, SU: Oklahoma State
Vanderbilt at South Carolina
When: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET | Where: Columbia, South Carolina
Latest Odds: South Carolina Gamecocks -18
You come to CBS Sports for analysis on all on the most important stories in sports … and the Gamecocks and Commodores, obviously. South Carolina has two wins over FBS opponents by a combined 12 points and handedly lost all three of its SEC games. Vandy barely counts as FBS, but these programs are much closer than the three-score line would suggest. Expect a rock fight as both these teams push for what will like be their last chance at a win this season. ATS: Vanderbilt, SU: South Carolina
Louisiana Tech at UTEP
When: Saturday, 9 p.m. ET | Where: El Paso, Texas
Latest Odds: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -6.5
UTEP’s 5-1 start has admittedly been aided by one of the worst schedules in college football, but hosting a struggling Louisiana Tech team with bowl eligibility on the line is the perfect opportunity to flip the narrative. The Miners’ defense has quietly been outstanding, holding four of its five FBS opponents to 21 points or fewer. Plus, wide receiver Jacob Cowing is explosive enough to cause issues for Louisiana Tech’s secondary. UTEP can win this game and reach bowl eligibility for the first time since Packers running back Aaron Jones was on campus. ATS: UTEP, SU: UTEP
No. 22 NC State at Boston College
When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET | Where: Boston, Massachusetts
Latest Odds: NC State Wolfpack -3
These two teams are awfully similar, which should make for a highly competitive game in Boston. NC State features one of the top defenses in the ACC, ranking ninth nationally at just 1.32 points per drive allowed. The Eagles are solid across the board and haven’t missed a beat since backup QB Dennis Grosel was forced to take over for Phil Jurkovec. After narrowly missing an opportunity to upset Clemson in the final minutes, Boston College is poised to rebound with a statement win. ATS: Boston College, SU: Boston College
Troy at Texas State
When: Saturday, 3 p.m. ET | Where: San Marcos, Texas
Latest Odds: Troy Trojans -7.5
Rumors of Texas State’s demise seem to have been greatly exaggerated. The Bobcats bounced back from an embarrassing start to the season by beating a salty South Alabama squad in quadruple-overtime to start 1-0 in conference play. Troy already has a bad loss to ULM and narrowly beat an equally bad Georgia Southern squad at home. Texas State went on a 23-7 run to end the game – the Bobcats might have turned a corner at the right time. ATS: Texas State, SU: Texas State
Which college football picks can you make with confidence in Week 7, and which top-10 team will get a huge scare? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread — all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $3,800 in profit over the past five-plus seasons — and find out.
