Dayton vs. Davidson odds, line: 2020 college basketball picks, Feb. 28 predictions by model on 66-40 run

Davidson is looking for a huge upset to take some of the sting off its roller-coaster season when the Wildcats visit Obi Toppin and the No. 4 Dayton Flyers in an Atlantic 10 meeting Friday night. The Flyers (26-2) have won 17 straight and survived a minor scare on Tuesday in a 62-55 victory against George Mason. The Wildcats (15-12) clobbered La Salle 74-49 on Tuesday to win their fourth in a row. 

Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET at University of Dayton Arena. The Flyers are 10.5-point favorites in the latest Davidson vs. Dayton odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 141. Before considering any Dayton vs. Davidson picks or college basketball predictions, you need to see what the proven SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has crushed its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread the past three years, returning $2,770 to $100 players. It also entered Week 17 of the 2019-20 season on a 66-40 run on all top-rated college basketball picks. Anybody who followed it has seen some huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in on Dayton vs. Davidson. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college basketball lines and trends for Davidson vs. Dayton:

  • Dayton vs. Davidson spread: Flyers -10.5
  • Dayton vs. Davidson over-under: 141
  • Dayton vs. Davidson: Flyers -621, Wildcats +445
  • DAY: G Jalen Crutcher has scored at least 17 points in 10 of the past 12 games.
  • DAV: G Jon Axel Gudmundsson is shooting 51.5 percent on 3-pointers the past seven games.

Why Dayton can cover

Dayton is 8-7 against the spread at home this season, and the Flyers lead the NCAA in field-goal percentage at 52. Toppin, a possible 2020 NBA Draft lottery pick, makes 62.3 percent of his shots, and the 6-foot-9 forward leads the team in scoring at 19.7 and rebounds with 7.7. Crutcher hits 41.6 percent from 3-point range on a team-high 154 attempts, fellow junior guard Ibi Watson has made 42 of 106 (39.6 percent) and Toppin has hit 36.8 percent of his 76 tries.   

Crutcher averages 15 points and a team-high 4.9 assists for the Flyers, who are 14-13 against the spread as a favorite. He is one of four players, along with Toppin, Watson (10.1) and senior Trey Landers (10.7) to score in double figures. Senior Ryan Mikesell does it all for Dayton, scoring nine points and grabbing 4.8 rebounds and combining with Toppin for two blocked shots per game. 

Why Davidson can cover

Even so, the Flyers aren’t a lock to cover the Dayton vs. Davidson spread. Davidson is 32-23-1 against the spread in conference games the past three years, and Gudmundsson is the reigning Atlantic 10 Player of the Year. The 6-foot-5 senior makes the whole team go, averaging team highs with 4.6 assists and 7.3 rebounds per game, and is the second-leading scorer at 14 per game. 

Junior Kellan Grady scores a team-high 16.8 points, and guard Carter Collins (10.5) and forward Luka Brajkovic (10.4) also average double digits. The Wildcats are 31-27-1 after a win over the last three years, and they shoot 36.7 percent from 3-point range as a team. 

How to make Dayton vs. Davidson picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, with the simulations expecting an above-average game from Dayton’s Rodney Chatman and Davidson getting plenty of points at the free-throw line. The model also has generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. 

So who wins Dayton vs. Dayton? And which side of the spread is hitting more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Davidson vs. Dayton spread to jump on Friday, all from the advanced model that has returned $2,770 on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.

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