Fantasy Football: FFT’s early draft regrets, Week 2 breakout players and bold predictions

Hello, everyone. Dan Schneier (@DanSchneierNFL) here. We’ve made it through Week 1 and we’re on to Week 2. We know some of you are already taking victory laps after Week 1 made some of your favorite draft picks shine while others of you are scrambling to the waiver wire to grab the Elijah Mitchells of this world. This piece is for all of you — everyone who plays the great game of Fantasy Football. Every week I will get together the Fantasy Football Today crew to provide me responses to a panel of questions that could help you win your week and ultimately (hopefully) your league. Without further ado, let’s dive right in:

1. Which player do you already most regret not drafting enough of?

Adam: I wish I had more Kenyan Drake. With five catches for 59 yards in week 1, he appears to be the passing downs back for the Raiders and Josh Jacobs is already injured. It’s fair to question how long Jacobs can go with his turf toe and Drake could see a big workload if Jacobs has to miss some time. Even if Jacobs stays healthy, Drake is not just a handcuff but someone you can use as a flex in PPR leagues..I suppose Jalen Richard could eat into Drake’s role once he is off IR, but that is not a big concern for me. 

Dave: Deebo Samuel. I had a shot at him in every draft since his ADP was low. His target share in Week 1 might have been a byproduct of the 49ers run game being in flux AND because of Brandon Aiyuk’s relegation. He might end up as a magnificent bargain. 

Jamey: Joe Mixon. He was impressive in Week 1 with 33 total touches (four catches), 150 total yards and a touchdown against a good Vikings defense. If he can stay healthy and get over 25 total touches a week then he could be a top-five running back in all leagues.

Chris: Joe Mixon. I was very, very high on Mixon coming into this season, and I was willing to draft him as early as the 1-2 turn in all leagues. But I only ended up with him in a few leagues, and I should have made that more of a priority. The only problem was, if you were drafting in the first half of the first round, you needed him to slip to 18th or later to snag him, and you couldn’t always count on that. He’s a top-four RB for me for Week 2, and I think he’s going to have a monster season in the role we’ve always wanted for him. 

Heath: Mike Williams. His 26% target share in Week 1, combined with the way they talked about him all offseason, has me believing in Williams as a low-end No. 1 wide receiver. The new offense in Los Angeles appears to be more focused on the receivers, and less on the running backs in the passing game. This shouldn’t have been that surprising. Almost all offenses in the NFL are less focused on throwing to running backs than Anthony Lynn’s, as the Lions’ Week 1 game plan showed.

2. Which player do you now wish you had drafted less?

Adam: I did not draft James Robinson in any leagues, but I thought he was the right pick late in Round 3 (after Travis Etienne’s injury, of course). Well I can’t help but think the Jaguars are going to be a disorganized, illogical, unpredictable mess this season. Robinson is still going to be the lead back and will have some good games, but I do not see him being a standout running back. Will he be any better than Damien Harris, Chase Edmonds, Darrell Henderson or other RBs you could have drafted a round or two later? I doubt it.  

Dave: Jerry Jeudy. Obvious reasons. I’m hoping Tim Patrick can fill in for him on the Broncos and in my Fantasy lineups. 

Jamey: Trey Sermon — for now. I have Sermon on several Fantasy teams, and seeing him ruled inactive as a healthy scratch in Week 1 at Detroit was frustrating. I’m hopeful that with Raheem Mostert (knee) out for the season we can see Sermon back in the mix for the 49ers, and maybe he will prove to be better than Elijah Mitchell. Hopefully, by the end of the season, Sermon will prove to be the best running back in San Francisco this year.

Chris: I don’t think there’s anyone I really regret, though I’m not exactly feeling great about having Julio Jones on more than half of my teams right now. Not that I’m panicking, but Week 1 was discouraging, for sure. Hopefully the Titans line can play better moving forward, because I still certainly believe in the talent. 

Heath: Definitely Mecole Hardman. Patrick Mahomes threw 64.7% of his passes to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in Week 1, and they accounted for 89.3% of the team’s air yards. I was hopeful Hardman could absorb Sammy Watkins‘ role in this offense, but it appears Hill and Kelce will take that as well.

3. Which player will break out in Week 2?

Adam: The obvious answer here is “The Packers” but I will not take the easy way out! Let’s go with Najee Harris! The Raiders are coming to town after a Monday night overtime game and it’s time for the new Steelers offense to produce some results. I still believe in Harris and would love to buy low, but if he struggles against the Raiders we might have a problem on our hands.

Dave: The Broncos defense is good at containing the big play and accepts short targets. Perfect for Laviska Shenault. He’s an easy target for the Jaguars to use to make Trevor Lawrence more comfortable, too. 

Jamey: Javonte Williams could have a big game in Week 2 at Jacksonville. The Jaguars run defense is bad, and they just allowed touchdowns against Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay and David Johnson for the Texans. While Melvin Gordon remains the better of Denver’s top two running backs (for now), look for Williams to have a big game against Jacksonville this week. 

Chris: Najee Harris. If you’re worried about him at all, don’t be. He only had 45 yards on his 16 carries and just the one catch, but he got the Le’Veon Bell treatment in his first NFL game, playing every single snap for the Steelers. He’ll presumably get a breather at some point, but it’s clear Pittsburgh views him as a legitimate three-down back they can lean on, and that’s going to lead to top-12 production almost by default, even if this offense isn’t great. 

Heath: It should be Najee Harris. He played 100% of the Steelers’ snaps in Week 1 but had a miserable performance due to poor efficiency. The Raiders defense doesn’t provide near the challenge that Buffalo does. Harris should be a top-12 back this week, at home, as a large favorite. If he’s not, his Fantasy managers can start to panic.

4. Which player who shined in Week 1 is most likely to come back to Earth in Week 2?

Adam: I’ll give you three players who will come back to earth: Sterling Shepard will be a solid WR3/4 this season, but making big plays after the catch and scoring TDs are not exactly his thing. Kareem Hunt was lucky to score a TD at Kansas City but had just 9 touches compared to 17 for Nick Chubb. This is not a shared backfield. I actually think Hunt could be fine against Houston in Week 2, but eventually the fun will end and you should see what you can get for Hunt. Jamaal Williams just had his best game of the season (unless D’Andre Swift misses time). Sell sell sell!

Dave: Josh Jacobs has a tough matchup on the road on a short week. I can’t buy into him being productive in Fantasy for a consecutive week. 

Jamey: Corey Davis makes me nervous in Week 2 with the Jets taking on the Patriots. Bill Belichick is notorious for ruining rookie quarterbacks, and Wilson’s offensive line is a mess. Davis, who just had two touchdowns against the Panthers in Week 1, will likely see plenty of attention from the New England secondary. I’d be shocked if Davis was a top-30 Fantasy receiver in any format this week.

Chris: Juwan Johnson. I like the potential he brings to the table as a converted wide receiver playing tight end, but he was also just third on the team at the position in snaps. Now, he’ll likely play more than 19% of the snaps in a game where the Saints actually have to throw the ball, but he’s going to need his role to grow significantly to be a starting-caliber option even at this thin position. 

Heath: I do not believe that Jameis Winston is going to maintain a 25% touchdown rate this season. And I’m really not sure the Saints will have to throw a lot in their Week 2 matchup with the Panthers. Winston will probably throw for more than 148 yards this week, but I’d bet he scores barely half as many Fantasy points.

5. What’s your boldest player prediction for Week 2?

Adam: Javonte Williams breaks out for 14 carries, 82 yards and a touchdown at Jacksonville. I can’t say I’ll have the guts to start him because the floor is so low, but I already picked on Jacksonville once in this Q&A so I might as well keep going. One of the two Broncos RBs will have a good game. I’m hoping it’s Williams!

Dave: Mike Evans makes up for last week and scores twice on the Falcons

Jamey: Aaron Rodgers goes for 400 passing yards and four touchdowns on Monday night against the Lions. This is the perfect setup for Rodgers and the Packers to rebound after getting embarrassed by the Saints in Week 1. Rodgers will get two touchdowns from Davante Adams, one touchdown from Robert Tonyan and one from Randall Cobb, who gets back to doing the Lambeau Leap in Green Bay.

Chris: Allen Robinson is going to be the No. 1 WR this week. I don’t have it ranked that way, but at No. 6, it’s not far off. The Bears just couldn’t do anything in Week 1 against the Rams defensive front, which resulted in Robinson seeing an average depth of target of just 1.2 yards on his 11 targets. However, that was still a 28.9% target share, and he should be at or near there in a much better matchup against the Bengals. He’s going to bounce back in a big way. 

Heath: JuJu Smith-Schuster is a borderline No. 1 wide receiver. Like Harris, Smith-Schuster struggled against the Bills. But he still earned a 25% target share and looked like the clear No. 2 in the passing game ahead of Chase Claypool. That type of target share against the Raiders should produce much better results. 

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