Florida Derby predictions, odds, horses 2020: Ete Indien, Independence Hall picks by top handicapping champion

A key prep race for the Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday when an accomplished field leaves the starting gate in the 2020 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. Since its inaugural running in 1952, the Florida Derby has produced two-dozen Kentucky Derby winners, 19 Preakness Stakes winners and 16 Belmont Stakes champions. Saturday’s victor will receive 100 qualifying points towards the 2020 Kentucky Derby, which has been moved to Sept. 5 because of the coronavirus pandemic.

The Barclay Tagg-trained Tiz the Law is the 6-5 morning-line favorite in the current 2020 Florida Derby odds. Ete Indien (4-1) and Independence Hall (9-2) are the second and third choices, respectively, in the 2020 Florida Derby field, and post time is 6:36 p.m. ET. With the race featuring a large and accomplished field, you’ll want to hear what SportsLine’s resident handicapping champion, Jonathon Kinchen, has to say before making any 2020 Florida Derby picks.

Kinchen is one of the nation’s most successful and recognizable handicappers. An analyst for Fox Sports’ “Saturday at the Races,” Kinchen won the National Horseplayers Championship Tour in 2015, a demanding, yearlong series of handicapping events across the country. That same year, he became the only player in history to have both of his entries qualify for the final table of the National Horseplayers Championship. 

In addition, Kinchen has scored huge on some of racing’s biggest days. At the 2015 Kentucky Derby, he cashed for $150,000 after nailing a Pick 6 and a $300 cold Pick 3 that paid $50,000. He also hit a Pick 4 for $84,000 on Belmont Stakes day in 2010, one of several five-figure days he has had at the track. 

He’s currently riding a hot streak for SportsLine. In the Fountain of Youth Stakes last month, Kinchen nailed an $80 win bet on Ete Indien, the third choice in the final odds, which paid a healthy $344. And in the Beholder Mile two weeks ago, he gave out a $50 exacta that paid out 11x.

Now, Kinchen has handicapped the 2020 Florida Derby field, made his picks and formulated his bets. He’s only sharing them here.

2020 Florida Derby expert picks

Kinchen is completely fading Ete Indien, even though he’s the second-biggest favorite in the entire race. An $80,000 purchase two years ago, this speedy colt went gate-to-wire while winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes by almost nine lengths. It was his third victory in five career starts.

However Saturday’s Florida Derby 2020 shapes up differently than the Fountain of Youth. There is more speed in the race, which will make life more difficult for Ete Indien and jockey Florent Geroux to get the same easy lead they got last time. In addition, rival jockeys now know Geroux’s strategy and are not likely to allow him to get away with the same tactics.

Another curveball: Kinchen also is fading Independence Hall, the third-biggest favorite at 9-2. Trained by Michael Trombetta, Independence Hall has three wins and one second in four career starts. Both his sire, Constitution, and his dam sire, Cape Town, won the Florida Derby.

Independence Hall earned a big 101 Beyer speed figure in November, but he has not approached that figure in two races since. In addition, he has yet to show he can relax behind a fast pace. He is a talented colt, but Kinchen will not have Independence Hall on any of his tickets.

How to make 2020 Florida Derby bets

However, Kinchen’s top pick is a horse who has not seen the early pace he is likely to encounter on Saturday. Kinchen is including this horse in his wagers, and so should you. He’s sharing these picks only at SportsLine. 

Which horse wins the Florida Derby 2020? And which wagers should you make? Check out the latest Florida Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Kinchen’s picks for the Florida Derby.

Florida Derby odds 2020

Tiz the Law (6-5)
Independence Hall (9-2)
Ete Indien (4-1)
Gouverneur Morris (8-1)
As Seen On TV (12-1)
Disc Jockey (20-1)
Candy Tycoon (20-1)
Ajaaweed (20-1)
Soros (30-1)
Shivaree (30-1)
Sassy But Smart (50-1)
My First Grammy (50-1)

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