Heat vs. Rockets odds, line, spread: 2021 NBA picks, Feb. 11 predictions from model on 79-46 roll

The Houston Rockets host the Miami Heat in an intriguing cross-conference showdown on Thursday evening. Miami enters on a three-game winning streak, improving to 10-14 on the season, while Houston is 11-13 overall and 5-5 at home. Goran Dragic (ankle) and Avery Bradley (calf) are out for Miami, with Maurice Harkless (thigh) listed as questionable. Christian Wood (ankle) is out for Houston, with John Wall (ankle) listed as probable.

Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Houston. William Hill Sportsbook lists Houston as a two-point road favorite, holding steady from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas expects, is 215.5 in the latest Heat vs. Rockets odds. Before making any Rockets vs. Heat picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is also up more than $8,300 on top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. Dating back to last season, it enters Week 8 of the 2020-21 NBA schedule on a stunning 79-46 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Rockets vs. Heat. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Heat vs. Rockets:

  • Heat vs. Rockets spread: Heat -2
  • Heat vs. Rockets over-under: 215.5 points
  • Heat vs. Rockets money line: Heat -130, Rockets +110
  • MIA: The Heat are 3-7 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • HOU: The Rockets are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games

Latest Odds:

Houston Rockets

Why the Heat can cover

Miami has struggled this season, but the Heat are showing signs of life with a healthier roster. The Heat are led by two stars in Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, each providing high-quality defense to go along with their offensive production. Adebayo is averaging 20.1 points, 9.1 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game, developing as a shooter and operating as a passer in a way few centers can in the modern game. Butler is averaging 18.8 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game, and the Heat are a different and better team with him in the lineup. 

With Adebayo and Butler surrounded by shooters like Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro, Miami is very difficult to defend, and the Heat can put pressure on Houston’s defense. On the other end, the Heat are a top-10 unit, and they will be facing a Rockets offense that currently ranks 23rd in the NBA in offensive efficiency, producing fewer than 1.08 points per possession for the season.

Why the Rockets can cover

Houston’s defense is potent, ranking fourth in the NBA this season and allowing only 107.8 points per 100 possessions. The Rockets are sixth in the league in effective field goal percentage allowed (51.5 percent) and turnover creation rate (15.0 percent), and this is also a favorable matchup for Houston’s defense. Miami is the worst team in the NBA at protecting the ball offensively, issuing a turnover on 16.6 percent of possessions. 

From there, the Heat are 29th in the NBA in offensive rebound rate (22.6 percent) and 26th in overall offensive efficiency. The Rockets are weakened offensively by the absence of Wood, but Victor Oladipo is averaging 19.6 points per game since joining Houston’s attack, and Eric Gordon adds 18.6 points per contest. Gordon is also hot right now, averaging 21.2 points per game and shooting almost 41 percent from 3-point range in the last 12 contests.

How to make Heat vs. Rockets picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with the simulations projecting 207 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. You can get that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Rockets vs. Heat? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.

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