Louisville vs. Virginia odds, line: 2020 college basketball picks, March 7 predictions from advanced model

It’s a showdown that will help determine the Atlantic Coast Conference regular-season title when the 22nd-ranked Virginia Cavaliers host the 10th-ranked Louisville Cardinals on Saturday afternoon. The Cardinals (24-6) are tied for the top spot in the conference with Florida State at 15-4, while Virginia (22-7) and Duke are a game back at 14-5. The Cavaliers need a win and losses by Duke and FSU to win the title, while the Cards will get at least a share of the crown with a victory. Louisville won the first meeting 80-73 last month, but Virginia hasn’t lost a game since. 

Tip-off is set for 4 p.m. ET at John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Va. The Cavaliers are one-point favorites in the latest Louisville vs. Virginia odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 114.5. Before making your Virginia vs. Louisville picks and college basketball predictions, make sure you see what the proven SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has crushed its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread the past three years, returning $2,770 to $100 players. It also entered Week 18 of the 2019-20 season on a 72-48 run on all top-rated college basketball picks. Anybody who followed it has seen some huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Louisville vs. Virginia. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college basketball lines and trends for Virginia vs. Louisville:

  • Louisville vs. Virginia spread: Cavaliers -1
  • Louisville vs. Virginia over-under: 114.5
  • Louisville vs. Virginia money line: Cavaliers -114, Cardinals -106
  • Virginia: Five different Cavaliers have led the team in scoring in the past six games.
  • Louisville: The Cardinals have made at least nine 3-pointers in 12 of the past 20 games.

Why the Cavaliers can cover

Virginia is 4-1 against the spread against ranked opponents this year and boasts the best defense in the nation. The Cavaliers rank first in Division I in allowing only 52.3 points per game and are second in field-goal percentage defense at 36.9. They block almost five shots per game, led by forwards Jay Huff with 2.0 and Mamadi Diakite with 1.2. Diakite is the top scorer at 13.6 points and grabs 6.7 rebounds, while the 7-foot-1 Huff gets 6.2 boards and adds 8.4 points. 

Senior guard Braxton Key leads the team in rebounds at 7.4 and also scores in double figures at 10 points per game. Sophomore Kihei Clark, who is just 5-foot-9, gets 5.9 assists and scores 10.4 points. Clark and Key each averages 1.2 steals as the the defending national champs continue to emphasize stifling defense. Junior guard Tomas Woldetensae is the ace outside shooter, making 51 of his team-high 139 3-point attempts, a 36.7 percent success rate.   

Why the Cardinals can cover

Louisville is 6-4-1 against the spread in its past 11 games, and the Cardinals count heavily on forward Jordan Nwora. The 6-foot-7 junior scores a team-high 18 points and grabs 7.6 rebounds, and he hits 40 percent of his 3-point tries. Senior forward Dwayne Sutton also hits the boards hard, getting a team-high 8.3 rebounds and chipping in 9.3 points. Senior center Steven Enoch is the No. 2 scorer at 9.4 points per game and pulls down 5.6 rebounds per contest.

The Cardinals are 16-13-1 against the spread overall this season, and they also can slow down opposing offenses. They allow 63.9 points per game and rank 13th in field-goal percentage defense. Senior guard Ryan McMahon, Nwora and Sutton all can get hot from 3-point range, with McMahon making 43.1 percent of his 153 attempts and Nwora hitting 40 percent on a team-high 180 tries. Five Cardinals have at least 18 steals this season.    

How to make Louisville vs. Virginia picks

We can tell you that the model is leaning over, with the simulations calling for both teams to top 60 points. The model also has generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Louisville vs. Virginia? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Virginia vs. Louisville spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,700 on its college basketball picks the last three years, and find out.

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