Mavericks vs. Spurs odds, line, spread: 2020 NBA picks, Feb. 26 predictions from model on 47-30 roll

The Dallas Mavericks travel to face the San Antonio Spurs in a Texas-sized battle on Wednesday evening. The Mavericks, led by Luka Doncic, enter Wednesday’s matchup having won three of their last four games. Dallas will be without Jalen Brunson (shoulder) and Dwight Powell (Achilles), with San Antonio operating without LaMarcus Aldridge (shoulder) in this contest. 

Tip-off is at 8:30 p.m. ET at the AT&T Center. Sportsbooks list the Mavericks as 5.5-point road favorites, holding steady from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 227.5 in the latest Mavericks vs. Spurs odds. Before you make any Spurs vs. Mavericks picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated spread and money line picks. It’s already returned well over $3,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 19 a blistering 47-30 on all top-rated spread picks this season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavericks vs. Spurs. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are the NBA odds and trends for Spurs vs. Mavericks:

  • Mavericks vs. Spurs spread: Mavericks -5.5
  • Mavericks vs. Spurs over-under: 227.5 points
  • Mavericks vs. Spurs money line: Mavericks -215, Spurs +177
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 7-4 against the spread in their last 11 games.
  • SAS: The Spurs are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games.

Why the Mavericks can cover

The model knows that, when healthy, the Mavericks are the best offensive team in the NBA. Dallas comfortably leads the league in offensive efficiency, zooming beyond the competition on a per-possession basis. Doncic is in the middle of it all, and the Mavericks rank in the top five of the NBA in turnover avoidance and shooting efficiency. In addition, Dallas ranks as an above-average team in offensive rebounding and free throw creation, with few weaknesses offensively. 

On the defensive side, the Mavericks aren’t quite as potent, but Dallas does have a top-10 mark in shooting efficiency allowed, and Rick Carlisle’s team is tremendous at keeping their opponent off the free throw line. Plus, the Mavericks are 6-0 against the spread in their last six games against San Antonio on the road. 

Why the Spurs can cover

Even so, Dallas isn’t a lock to cover the Mavericks vs. Spurs spread. The model also understands that the Spurs have strengths to bank on in their first home game since Feb. 1. San Antonio is the best team in the NBA at avoiding turnovers, and that edge can be even further exploited against a Dallas team that ranks dead-last in turnover creation. The Spurs are an above-average offensive team overall, averaging 113.0 points per game, which ranks 10th in the NBA. 

San Antonio’s defense will have its hands full with the elite Dallas offense, but the Spurs do grab defensive rebounds at a tremendous rate, and they should have success in keeping the Mavericks away from the free throw line. That combination should help limit the Mavericks’ overall upside in this matchup.

How to make Spurs vs. Mavericks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total. In fact, the model is projecting Aldridge’s absence to affect San Antonio’s offensive output, while Doncic falls short of his scoring average. It also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations. 

So who wins Mavericks vs. Spurs? And which side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Spurs vs. Mavericks spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.

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