Mavericks vs. Spurs odds, line, spread: 2020 NBA picks, March 10 predictions from proven model on 51-32 roll

The Dallas Mavericks (39-26) will visit the San Antonio Spurs (26-36) in an intriguing Western Conference showdown on Tuesday evening. Both teams may be short-handed, however, with Seth Curry (ankle), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (illness) and Willie Cauley-Stein (illness) ruled out for the Mavericks, and both Luka Doncic (wrist) and Dorian Finney-Smith (hip) listed as questionable. On San Antonio’s side, Dejounte Murray (calf), Jakob Poeltl (knee) have been ruled out, with LaMarcus Aldridge (shoulder) listed as doubtful and Lonnie Walker (shin) listed as questionable.

Tip-off is at 8 p.m. ET at AT&T Center. Sportsbooks list the Mavericks as 3.5-point road favorites, holding steady from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 226.5 in the latest Mavericks vs. Spurs odds. Before making any Spurs vs. Mavericks picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has already returned almost $4,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season. It also entered Week 21 a blistering 51-32 on all top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavericks vs. Spurs. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Spurs vs. Mavericks:

  • Mavericks vs. Spurs spread: Mavericks -3.5
  • Mavericks vs. Spurs over-under: 226.5 points
  • Mavericks vs. Spurs money line: Mavericks -154, Spurs +128
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 2-4 against the spread in the last six games
  • SAS: The Spurs have failed to cover the spread in seven straight games

Why the Mavericks can cover

The model knows that the Mavericks, if nothing else, are an elite offensive team. In fact, Dallas leads the NBA in points per possession over the balance of the season. The Mavericks rank in the top four of the league in both shooting efficiency and turnover rate offensively and, against a Spurs defense that ranks in the bottom-10 in points allowed per possession, Dallas should be able to find success. 

Defensively, the Mavericks aren’t quite as good, but Rick Carlisle’s team does have some encouraging metrics. Dallas is a top-10 team in shooting efficiency allowed, and they do a great job of keeping opponents off the free throw line, ranking No. 6 in the NBA in that category. San Antonio is also dead-last in the NBA in offensive rebound rate, allowing the Mavericks to close possessions and improve their overall defensive impact in this matchup.

Why the Spurs can cover

Even so, Dallas isn’t a lock to cover the Mavericks vs. Spurs spread. The model also realizes that the Spurs are at a bit of a talent disadvantage, but there are things for Gregg Popovich’s team to lean on against Dallas. San Antonio is the NBA’s best team at avoiding turnovers, giving the ball away on only 12.1 percent of possessions. 

That leads the Spurs to an above-average overall offense, scoring 111.8 points per 100 possessions, and the Mavericks are a thoroughly mediocre defensive team when rated by metrics. DeMar DeRozan, averaging 22.3 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game this season, should be able to take advantage of the Mavericks on that side of the floor. Defensively, San Antonio has a tough matchup, but they are tremendous on the defensive glass, ranking No. 6 in the NBA, and being able to limit the explosive Mavericks offense to only one shot could be a huge edge.

How to make Mavericks vs. Spurs picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, with Kristaps Porzingis and Rudy Gay projected to exceed their scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Spurs? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Spurs vs. Mavericks spread you need to jump on Tuesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

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