Michigan State vs. Penn State odds, line: College basketball picks, March 3 predictions by model on 72-48 run

It’s a battle of two of the Big Ten’s top teams when the 20th-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions host the No. 16 Michigan State Spartans on Tuesday night in University Park, Pa. Penn State (21-8) lost 77-68 to then-No.18 Iowa on Saturday, while the Spartans (20-9) have won three in a row and got a big 78-66 win against ninth-ranked Maryland. The Nittany Lions are looking for a season sweep after beating the Spartans 75-70 on Feb. 4. 

Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET at Bryce Jordan Center. The Spartans are 1.5-point favorites in the latest Michigan State vs. Penn State odds, while the over-under for total points scored is 144. Before considering any Penn State vs. Michigan State picks or college basketball predictions, make sure you see what the proven SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has crushed its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread the past three years, returning $2,770 to $100 players. It also entered Week 18 of the 2019-20 season on a 72-48 run on all top-rated college basketball picks. Anybody who followed it has seen some huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in on Michigan State vs. Penn State. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college basketball lines and trends for Penn State vs. Michigan State.

  • Michigan State vs. Penn State spread: Spartans -1.5
  • Michigan State vs. Penn State over-under: 144
  • Michigan State vs. Penn State money line: Spartans -125, Nittany Lions -103
  • MSU: G Cassius Winston has at least 20 points in six of the past eight games.
  • PSU: F Lamar Stevens is averaging 20.8 points over the past eight games.

Why Michigan State can cover

Michigan State is 32-19 against the spread after a win the past two years, and the combination of forward Xavier Tillman and guard Cassius Winston is one of the nation’s best. Tillman had 14 points, 12 rebounds and six assists against Maryland and averages a double-double at 13.3 points and 10.2 rebounds. Winston is the top scorer, averaging 18.5 points and dishing out 5.8 assists. 

Forward Aaron Henry also pitches in across the board for the Spartans, who are 26-16 ATS in conference games the past two seasons. The sophomore averages just under 10 points and three assists per game and adds 4.5 boards. Michigan State is second in the nation in assists at 17.8 per contest.

Why Penn State can cover

Even so, the Spartans aren’t a lock to cover the Michigan State vs. Penn State spread. Penn State is 10-6 against the spread at home this season, and Stevens is the top scorer, but he does much more. He pulls down 6.9 rebounds, gets 2.1 assists and blocks 1.3 shots per game.  Fellow senior forward Mike Watkins leads in rebounds with 7.6 and swats away 2.3 shots. PSU averages 38.8 rebounds and 7.7 steals per game. 

The Nittany Lions are 6-4 against the spread in their last 10, and they also average 14.3 assists. Wheeler scores just 3.8 points per game but leads in assists at 3.1, while Jones and Dread combine for 5.2. Jones and Dread are the main outside shooters, with Jones hitting 40.3 percent of his 129 3-point attempts, while Dread is shooting 31.4 percent on a team-high 185 tries. 

How to make Michigan State vs. Penn State picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with simulations showing just one PSU player scoring in double figures and Winston and Tillman struggling more than usual. The model also has generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. 

So who wins Michigan State vs. Penn State? And which side of the spread is hitting more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Penn State vs. Michigan State spread to jump on Tuesday, all from the advanced model on a 72-48 run on its top-rated college basketball picks, and find out.

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