MLB Prospect Watch: Can Rays’ Wander Franco catch teammate Randy Arozarena in AL Rookie of the Year race?

With Major League Baseball’s regular season nearing its conclusion, it’s once again time to evaluate the Rookie of the Year races. As such, we’re dedicating the next two Prospect Watch columns to that endeavor. This week, we’ll tackle the top five candidates in the American League; next week, we’ll turn our gaze to the top five candidates in the National League.

Do note that the players are presented in their anticipated order of finish based on everything we know to date. In other words, consider this to be a snapshot in time rather than a foolproof projection. Now, onto the good stuff.

1. Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays

The weirdest aspect to this season’s Rookie of the Year Award races is how some of the top candidates were also in the running for last year’s hardware. Arozarena, for instance, could’ve received votes after hitting .281/.382/.641 in 23 regular-season games (in the 60-game regular season). Voters denied him consideration because of the small sample size, however, and he had to settle for a historic postseason run that saw him homer 10 times in 20 games. Arozarena hasn’t maintained that level of output this season (no one could’ve), but he’s been a well-above-average hitter who is batting .276/.356/.468 (134 OPS+) in more than 500 trips to the plate. In an amusing twist, Arozarena could well be denied the Rookie of the Year Award again — this time because of a young teammate who has taken the league by storm in recent weeks.

2. Wander Franco, SS/3B, Rays

The only argument against Franco winning the award is the playing time aspect. He’s hitting .282/.344/.461 (128 OPS+), but in only 61 games. Franco has turned on the jets after a slow start (that saw him post a .630 OPS through his first 23 games) by reaching base in 38 consecutive contests. During that stretch, he’s hit .320/.389/.527 with four home runs and more walks (15) than strikeouts (14). Again, it’s possible that this overstates his chances of winning the Rookie of the Year Award, but it’s worth paying attention whenever a 20-year-old reels off a stretch of hitting like this.

3. Luis Garcia, RHP, Astros

For whatever reason, Garcia doesn’t seem to get much national press. That’s too bad, because he’s delivered a fantastic rookie season that has seen him accumulate a 132 ERA+ and a 3.88 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 134 innings. Garcia doesn’t throw hard as most of his contemporaries, but he imparts good spin on his pitches and generates whiffs and chases by the handful. He’s been particularly effective as of late, running a 2.70 ERA in his last six starts. 

4. Casey Mize, RHP, Tigers

Mize is another individual who was eligible for last year’s award. He didn’t receive consideration then because of a bloated 6.99 ERA in seven starts. He’s done better in his sophomore season, compiling a 121 ERA+ and a 2.72 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 138 innings. It will be worth monitoring whether voters hold Mize’s so-so peripherals against him: he’s struck out roughly seven batters per nine while permitting 23 home runs in 26 outings. He’s still kept runs off the board, but it’s hard to see him leapfrogging Garcia as the top pitcher on the ballot.

5. Adolis García, OF, Rangers

This might undersell García’s chances. After all, he’s hit .243/.291/.473 (107 OPS+) with 29 home runs and good center-field defense in more than 120 games. The catch with García is that he did most of his damage in a single month (May, when he had a .981 OPS). Since the start of the second half, he’s hit an abysmal .198/.255/.379 with 50 more strikeouts (64) than walks (14) in 196 plate appearances. There’s no rule that states a player must be more consistent in order to receive full credit for their season-long contributions. Still, it stands to reason that he might be overexposed to the point where his numbers continue to slip between now and season’s end, removing the shine from his candidacy and perhaps causing him to slip below the likes of Cleveland reliever Emmanuel Clase.