NASCAR Playoffs at Bristol odds, predictions: Surprising 2020 Bass Pro Shops Night Race picks by top model

It is cut time Saturday night after the 2020 Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway, as the Round of 16 in the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs will be trimmed to 12 drivers based on their aggregate points. The green flag drops at the “World’s Fastest Half Mile” at 7:30 p.m. ET, with a 40-driver field fighting for position on every lap. Points leader Kevin Harvick has a season-best eight victories in 2020, but six-race winner Denny Hamlin is just 21 points back.

Hamlin is the 5-1 favorite in the 2020 Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds from William Hill. Harvick is at 6-1 and Brad Keselowski, who enters the weekend third in the standings and just 31 points behind Harvick, is at 7-1 and is among top 2020 NASCAR at Bristol contenders to watch. Before locking your 2020 Bass Pro Shops Night Race picks or entering a NASCAR DFS tournament, be sure to see the latest 2020 NASCAR Playoffs at Bristol predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven model at SportsLine.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 NASCAR season by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. It got off to a hot start on its NASCAR picks following the coronavirus hiatus as well, calling seven of the top 10 drivers at both Darlington races. Using the model, McClure also recommended an outright play on winner Brad Keselowski at 13-1 as one of his best bets at Bristol in May. 

The model also called Kevin Harvick’s win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure also used the model to lock in an outright bet on Hamlin winning at 10-1 at Miami. At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick’s fourth victory of the season, and also identified four top-five drivers in the All-Star Race at Bristol. At the Daytona road course, the model called Chase Elliott’s win and nailed three of the top four drivers. Anybody who has follow the model has seen some huge returns. 

Now, the model simulated the NASCAR at Bristol race on Saturday, Sept. 19, 10,000 times. Head here to see the complete projected leaderboard.

Top 2020 Bass Pro Shops Night Race predictions

One surprise: The model is high on Clint Bowyer, even though he’s a 30-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Bristol odds from William Hill. Bowyer is a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Bowyer is sitting squarely on the bubble to advance in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs in 12th position, so he needs a strong run to stay in contention.

Bowyer is coming off back-to-back 10th-place finishes at Darlington and Richmond, and has nine top-10s in the 2020 season. Bowyer ran second to Brad Keselowski in the Bristol spring race, and has 16 top-10s at the steep-banked short track. Knowing he has to be fast at a site at which he has lots of positive history, Bowyer is a smart choice for 2020 NASCAR at Bristol bets on Saturday.

And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, one of the favorites at 11-2, stumbles big time and doesn’t even crack the top five. There are far better values in this loaded field. Even though Elliott won the All-Star Race at Bristol this year, the model doesn’t give too much weight to that performance due to the different format that night. 

In the points race at Bristol in May, Elliott settled for a disappointing 22nd place. He’s finished outside the top 10 in four of the past six points races at Bristol. With no career wins or runner-ups at Bristol, Elliott is one of the NASCAR at Bristol favorites to fade on Saturday.

How to make 2020 Bass Pro Shops Night Race picks

The model is also targeting two other drivers with odds of 12-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can only see who they are here.

So who wins Saturday’s 2020 Bass Pro Shops Night Race? And which long shot stuns NASCAR? Check out the latest odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2020 NASCAR at Bristol leaderboard, all from the model that has crushed its NASCAR picks and nailed the Daytona 500.

2020 NASCAR Playoffs at Bristol odds (via William Hill)

Denny Hamlin 5-1

Chase Elliott 11-2

Kyle Busch 6-1

Kevin Harvick 6-1

Brad Keselowski 7-1

Joey Logano 8-1

Ryan Blaney 9-1

Martin Truex Jr. 12-1

Kurt Busch 25-1

Clint Bowyer 30-1

Erik Jones 30-1

Jimmie Johnson 30-1

Alex Bowman 40-1

William Byron 50-1

Tyler Reddick 60-1

Matt DiBenedetto 60-1

Austin Dillon 60-1

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 75-1

Christopher Bell 75-1

Matt Kenseth 100-1

Ryan Newman 125-1

Cole Custer 125-1

Chris Buescher 300-1

Bubba Wallace 300-1

John Hunter Nemechek 1000-1

Michael McDowell 1500-1

Ty Dillon 1500-1

Ryan Preece 1500-1

Daniel Suarez 2000-1

JJ Yeley 5000-1

James Davison 5000-1

Reed Sorenson 5000-1

Joey Gase 5000-1

Quin Houff 5000-1

BJ McLeod 5000-1

Josh Bilicki 5000-1

Corey Lajoie 5000-1

Brennan Poole 5000-1

Timmy Hill 5000-1

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