NFL Free Agency Fantasy Fallout: Stefon Diggs gives Josh Allen a true No. 1; now will there be enough volume?

Stefon Diggs has been unhappy in Minnesota for some time and he hasn’t kept it a secret. Late Monday night he got the exodus he was hoping for, but maybe not the landing spot. The Vikings traded Diggs to the Buffalo Bills for a haul of draft picks including a 2020 first-round pick. The move has obvious ramifications for Kirk Cousins and Adam Thielen in Minnesota, but for now we’ll focus on what it means for the Bills, including their new wide receiver.

Diggs’ frustration in Minnesota was often centered around the play-calling and quarterback play. There’s certainly reason to doubt whether that’s going to get better in Buffalo. The Bills did throw the ball 47 more times than the Vikings in 2019, but they completed 20 fewer passes. What I would say is there’s less known in Buffalo. I feel far more confident that Minnesota is going to be a low pass-volume team in 2020. Buffalo could conceivably let loose of the reins on Allen, who could take a step forward as a passer.

In terms of a projection for Diggs, I do project him for 20 more targets in Buffalo than he had in Minnesota. I expect he’ll be less efficient, because Allen isn’t as good a passer as Cousins. So the numbers come out about the same. But the upside is more enticing in Buffalo. If Allen does make a leap, Diggs is likely a No. 1 receiver. In Minnesota he probably needed an injury to Thielen for that to be possible.

As for Allen’s projection, I boosted his efficiency ever so slightly to 7.2 yards per attempt and a 4.75% touchdown rate. Those numbers are still average at best, but with his running prowess they make him my No. 5 quarterback for 2020. Before free agency started, Allen was just inside my top 10, one spot ahead of Kyler Murray. They both moved up four spots on Monday, and Allen’s still projected to be slightly better. And a lot cheaper.

Here are my complete 2020 Bills projections as of March 17:

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