NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, bets, top predictions for Week 10, 2021: Model loving Bills, Broncos

One of the most shocking results of the first half of the NFL season saw the Bills losing to the Jaguars last week. Those teams are now part of the two largest Week 10 NFL spreads according to Caesars Sportsbook. Buffalo is a 13-point favorite as it looks to rebound against the Jets, while Jacksonville’s victory didn’t do much to shift its prospects in the eyes of oddsmakers. The Jags are 10.5-point underdogs in the latest Week 10 NFL odds as they travel to Indianapolis to take on the Colts.

Was last week’s Bills vs. Jaguars game an aberration for both teams? Or, was it a sign of life to come, causing you to adjust your Week 10 NFL bets? All of the Week 10 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 10 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,600 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 10 of the 2021 season on an incredible 128-88 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 10 NFL odds and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 10 NFL predictions

One of the model’s strongest Week 10 NFL picks is that the Bills (-13) cover the spread against the Jets. Despite Buffalo’s Week 9 defeat, the model is looking at its full body of work. The Bills lead the NFL in scoring defense and are fourth in scoring offense, while the Jets rank among the bottom six in both. Buffalo has also always bounced back after losses, as it has outscored its two opponents 61-11 following the team’s defeats.

The Jets don’t know who their quarterback will be on Sunday with both Zach Wilson (knee) and Mike White (arm) dealing with injuries. Josh Johnson, who was playing in the XFL last year, would be the next man up for New York. Add in that top receiver Corey Davis has missed the last two games and the Jets offense won’t be able to take flight against Buffalo’s top-ranked defense. 

The model has New York turning the ball over three times and failing to crack 300 yards of total offense. On the other hand, Josh Allen is projected to bounce back and have over 300 total yards by himself. With the model projecting Buffalo to win by 20 points, the Bills cover the 13-point spread in well over 60 percent of simulations.

Another one of the model’s Week 10 NFL predictions: The Broncos (-2.5) cover against the Eagles at home. Denver has one of the top rushing attacks in the league and put up a season-high 190 yards on the ground in Week 9. It is the only team with two players over 450 rushing yards, as both Melvin Gordon (477) and Javonte Williams (466) rank among the top 20 in the league. Meanwhile, the Eagles have given up the sixth-most rushing yards and the fifth-most rushing touchdowns.

The model projects the Broncos’ two-headed rushing attack to gain over 100 yards, while receivers Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton combine for over 130 receiving yards. SportsLine’s model projects the Broncos (-2.5) to cover in almost 60 percent of simulations. Also, with the running games taking center stage, the model has the Under (44.5) hitting well over 50 percent of the time.

How to make Week 10 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 10 NFL schedule, and it’s calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So which NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $7,600 since its inception, and find out.

Week 10 NFL odds, spreads, lines

Thursday, Nov. 11

Ravens at Dolphins (+7.5, 47.5)

Sunday, Nov. 14

Jaguars at Colts (-10.5, 47.5)

Browns at Patriots (-2, 45)

Falcons at Cowboys (-9, 53)

Bills at Jets (+13, 47.5)

Saints at Titans (-3, 45)

Buccaneers at Washington (+9.5, 51.5)

Lions at Steelers (-9, 43.5)

Vikings at Chargers (-2.5, 51.5)

Panthers at Cardinals (-10, 44.5)

Seahawks at Packers (-5, 49.5)

Eagles at Broncos (-2.5, 44.5)

Chiefs at Raiders (+2.5, 52)

Monday, Nov. 15

Rams at 49ers (+4, 49.5)