NFL Super Bowl odds 2022: Model lists predictions, picks to win, teams to avoid

The Kansas City Chiefs were on top of the world in 2019, but Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers refused to let them take home a second consecutive Lombardi Trophy, posting a 31-9 victory in Super Bowl LV in February. Despite that sound defeat, the Chiefs are still the +525 favorites at William Hill Sportsbook in the latest Super Bowl 56 odds. The Buccaneers are next at +650, while the Buffalo Bills are at +1300 in the current 2022 Super Bowl odds.

Three other Super Bowl 56 favorites include the Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens, all at +1400. The Cleveland Browns, who are seeking their first Super Bowl appearance, are +1600, while the 13-time world and four-time Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers are +1800 in the latest 2022 Super Bowl futures. Before making any 2022 Super Bowl picks based on the latest NFL odds, you need to check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters the 2021 season on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has set its sights on finding value in the 2022 Super Bowl odds. You can see its top NFL picks and predictions here.

Top 2022 Super Bowl predictions

After simulating the season 10,000 times, the model finds value in the Titans, even though they’re long shots at +3000 to win the Super Bowl. This offseason, Tennessee addressed concerns on the defensive side of the ball with a pair of key free-agent signings. With pass rush being the team’s biggest need, the Titans signed outside linebacker Bud Dupree, a former first-round draft choice by the Pittsburgh Steelers, and defensive lineman Denico Autry, who played the last three seasons at Indianapolis. Dupree has registered 39.5 career sacks and eight forced fumbles, while Autry has 30.5 career sacks.

Tennessee also added eight draft picks, including a pair of cornerbacks, a safety and edge rusher Rashad Weaver of Pittsburgh. With the return of a potent offense, the Titans win Super Bowl LVI 3.3 percent of the time, according to the model. That’s more than the implied winning percentage of 3.2 based on the team’s +3500 Super Bowl odds 2022 at William Hill Sportsbook, making Tennessee a value pick.

Another curveball: The model is fading the Buccaneers, even though they’re one of the top favorites at +650 and just hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. Tampa Bay is coming off a dream season. After finishing second in the NFC South, the Buccaneers ran the table in the playoffs and upset the Chiefs in the Super Bowl for the franchise’s second title. Veteran running back Giovani Bernard joins a team that did not lose any key players in the offseason.

However, Tampa Bay is winning the Super Bowl in just 12.3 percent of SportsLine’s simulations. At the team’s current price of +650, the Buccaneers have an implied winning percentage of 13.3, meaning they do not offer value at their price. There are far better 2022 Super Bowl bets to make, according to the model.

How to make 2022 Super Bowl picks

The model is also high on a juicy long shot in the AFC that would pay even better than the Colts. You need to see the model’s analysis before making any Super Bowl 56 bets.

So which long shot provides a juicy price to win Super Bowl LVI? And what other teams provide value at their current Super Bowl 2022 odds? Check out the latest Super Bowl LVI odds below, then visit SportsLine to see the picks from the model that’s up almost $7,900.

2022 Super Bowl odds to win

Chiefs +525
Buccaneers +650
Bills +1300
Ravens +1400
Rams +1400
49ers +1400
Packers +1600
Browns +1800
Broncos +2000
Colts +2500
Saints +2500
Seahawks +2500
Dolphins +2800
Cowboys +2800
Titans +3000
Patriots +3000
Steelers +3500
Chargers +3500
Cardinals +4000
Vikings +4000
Falcons +5000
Bears +5000
Washington Football Team +5000
Panthers +6000
Raiders +7000
Giants +7500
Eagles +7500
Bengals +10000
Jaguars +10000
Jets +10000
Lions +15000
Texans +20000

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