NFL Super Bowl odds 2022: Model reveals predictions, top picks to win, teams to avoid

The 2021 NFL Schedule is set, and the league will add a 17th regular season game after having expanded the playoffs to 14 teams a season ago. That will make the road to Super Bowl 56 at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles longer than it’s ever been, and depth will be critical in winning the war of attrition. The 49ers are coming off a 6-10 season in which they were decimated by injuries on both sides of the ball. However, the return of Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Richard Sherman and Dee Ford could help make them 2022 Super Bowl contenders.

The 49ers are listed at +1400 in the latest 2022 Super Bowl odds from William Hill Sportsbook, but they’ll have a quarterback situation to sort through after drafting Trey Lance as Jimmy Garoppolo’s eventual replacement. Elsewhere in the NFC West, the latest NFL odds list the Seahawks at +2500 to win Super Bowl LVI, while the Cardinals are +4000 and the Rams are +1400 in the 2022 Super Bowl futures. Before making any 2022 Super Bowl picks based on the latest NFL odds, you need to check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters the 2021 season on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has set its sights on finding value in the 2022 Super Bowl odds. You can see its top NFL picks and predictions here.

Top 2022 Super Bowl predictions

After simulating the season 10,000 times, the model finds value in the Colts, even though they’re long shots at +2500 to win the Super Bowl. Indianapolis has two postseason appearances in three years under Frank Reich. Coming off Philip Rivers‘ retirement, the Colts traded for Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz, reuniting him with Reich, with whom he had a career year in 2017.

Wentz has battled inconsistency since and led the NFL in interceptions a season ago despite starting just 12 games. However, he’ll be in a much better position to succeed in 2021 behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, surrounded by playmakers like T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal, Michael Pittman Jr. and a healthy Parris Campbell. Perhaps more importantly for Indianapolis’ offense, Jonathan Taylor quickly established himself as a running back that can help the Colts control the line of scrimmage.

The model gives Indianapolis a 7.0 percent chance to win Super Bowl 56, with their odds implying that they win just 3.9 percent of the time, making them a value for your Super Bowl LVI bets.

Another curveball: The model is fading the Buccaneers, even though they’re one of the top favorites at +650 and just hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. Tampa Bay is coming off a dream season. After finishing second in the NFC South, the Buccaneers ran the table in the playoffs and upset the Chiefs in the Super Bowl for the franchise’s second title. Veteran running back Giovani Bernard joins a team that did not lose any key players in the offseason.

However, Tampa Bay is winning the Super Bowl in just 12.3 percent of SportsLine’s simulations. At the team’s current price of +650, the Buccaneers have an implied winning percentage of 13.3, meaning they do not offer value at their price. There are far better 2022 Super Bowl bets to make, according to the model.

How to make 2022 Super Bowl picks

The model is also high on a juicy long shot in the AFC that would pay even better than the Colts. You need to see the model’s analysis before making any Super Bowl 56 bets.

So which long shot provides a juicy price to win Super Bowl LVI? And what other teams provide value at their current Super Bowl 2022 odds? Check out the latest Super Bowl LVI odds below, then visit SportsLine to see the picks from the model that’s up almost $7,900.

2022 Super Bowl odds to win

Chiefs +525
Buccaneers +650
Bills +1300
Ravens +1400
Rams +1400
49ers +1400
Packers +1600
Browns +1800
Broncos +2000
Colts +2500
Saints +2500
Seahawks +2500
Dolphins +2800
Cowboys +2800
Titans +3000
Patriots +3000
Steelers +3500
Chargers +3500
Cardinals +4000
Vikings +4000
Falcons +5000
Bears +5000
Washington Football Team +5000
Panthers +6000
Raiders +7000
Giants +7500
Eagles +7500
Bengals +10000
Jaguars +10000
Jets +10000
Lions +15000
Texans +20000

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