NFL Super Bowl odds 2022: Model unveils predictions, top picks to win, teams to avoid

The Chicago Bears made a major move during the 2021 NFL Draft that could shape the future of the franchise by jumping up to No. 11 to select Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields. However, with Fields potentially a long-term project who could sit behind veteran Andy Dalton, the Bears are still +5000 long shots in the latest 2022 Super Bowl odds from William Hill Sportsbook. Of the five teams that drafted a quarterback in the first round this year, only the 49ers (+1400) are listed at shorter than +3000 in the Super Bowl 56 odds.

Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs are set at quarterback with Patrick Mahomes signed through 2031. After making two consecutive Super Bowl trips, they’re the 2022 Super Bowl favorites at +525. Is that enough value to include the Chiefs in your 2022 Super Bowl futures bets? Before making any 2022 Super Bowl picks based on the latest NFL odds, you need to check out the NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters the 2021 season on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has set its sights on finding value in the 2022 Super Bowl odds. You can see its top NFL picks and predictions here.

Top 2022 Super Bowl predictions

After simulating the season 10,000 times, the model finds value in the Ravens, even though they’re long shots at +1400 to win the Super Bowl. With Lamar Jackson as the starting quarterback, the Ravens are 30-7 over the last two-and-a-half seasons.

During the offseason, the Ravens added wide receivers Sammy Watkins and Rashod Bateman to make Baltimore’s passing attack more potent. Even though the Ravens will focus on a ground-oriented offense, the balance should help prevent teams from loading the box come postseason time.

Meanwhile, the Ravens are hoping that the addition of Penn State edge rusher Jayson Oweh can help bolster a pass rush that was often lacking in 2020. With the Steelers struggling down the stretch and the Ravens closing strong, Baltimore looks like the favorite in the AFC North. That’s a big reason why SportsLine’s model has the Ravens winning Super Bowl 56 in 9.5 percent of simulations, even though the odds imply they only have a 6.7 percent chance to win.

Another curveball: The model is fading the Buccaneers, even though they’re one of the top favorites at +650 and just hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. Tampa Bay is coming off a dream season. After finishing second in the NFC South, the Buccaneers ran the table in the playoffs and upset the Chiefs in the Super Bowl for the franchise’s second title. Veteran running back Giovani Bernard joins a team that did not lose any key players in the offseason.

However, Tampa Bay is winning the Super Bowl in just 12.3 percent of SportsLine’s simulations. At the team’s current price of +650, the Buccaneers have an implied winning percentage of 13.3, meaning they do not offer value at their price. There are far better 2022 Super Bowl bets to make, according to the model.

How to make 2022 Super Bowl picks

The model is also high on a juicy long shot in the AFC that would pay even better than the Colts. You need to see the model’s analysis before making any Super Bowl 56 bets.

So which long shot provides a juicy price to win Super Bowl LVI? And what other teams provide value at their current Super Bowl 2022 odds? Check out the latest Super Bowl LVI odds below, then visit SportsLine to see the picks from the model that’s up almost $7,900.

2022 Super Bowl odds to win

Chiefs +525
Buccaneers +650
Bills +1300
Ravens +1400
Rams +1400
49ers +1400
Packers +1600
Browns +1800
Broncos +2000
Colts +2500
Saints +2500
Seahawks +2500
Dolphins +2800
Cowboys +2800
Titans +3000
Patriots +3000
Steelers +3500
Chargers +3500
Cardinals +4000
Vikings +4000
Falcons +5000
Bears +5000
Washington Football Team +5000
Panthers +6000
Raiders +7000
Giants +7500
Eagles +7500
Bengals +10000
Jaguars +10000
Jets +10000
Lions +15000
Texans +20000

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