NFL Week 12 picks, odds: Patriots destroy Titans, Lions get epic first win for Dan Campbell


Very thankful for anyone who reads this column or listens to the Pick Six Podcast. And if you do either you probably know I’m 73,462 miles deep into the Thanksgiving journey we embark on every year. So I’m going to pick the Thanksgiving games, give out my best bets and go full John Breech (subscribe to his newsletter here!) with “also featuring” on some picks. 

More than likely any editor who reads this will be thankful for a few thousand less words to parse. This is a pretty huge week from an ATS perspective — it’s the first time we’ve seen zero double-digit spreads over the entire NFL slate in several weeks I believe. Feels like there might be a little sauce lingering. 

That could just be the gravy talking though. Hopefully everyone has an enjoyable (and profitable!) Thanksgiving!  

All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook

NFL Week 12 Picks

Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET
TV: 
FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App

Latest Odds:

Detroit Lions
+2.5

Rumors are swirling about this being Matt Nagy’s last game (apparently regardless of whether the Bears win) but Chicago doesn’t really fire coaches midseason, so that would be surprising. Chanting “Fire Nagy” while the coach is attending his son’s high school football game — as a DAD, mind you — is completely classless. Don’t do that. What you should do is bet on the Lions in this game. Detroit gets a pretty wounded Bears team starting Andy Dalton and without Khalil Mack. Dan Campbell needs a win more than Matt Nagy somehow. Jared Goff is good to go. There should be plenty of catches for D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson in this game. Love Swift’s over receiving yards prop.

The pick: Lions 24, Bears 17

Props, Best Bets: Lions +3

Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)

Latest Odds:

Dallas Cowboys
-7

Somehow I found a prop that lists Ezekiel Elliott at 3-1 for most rushing yards on Thursday (between him, Swift, Josh Jacobs and David Montgomery). He might be limited, but no one feasts like Zeke when it comes to Turkey Day. Supplement it with a bunch of Tony Pollard over rushing yards and there’s a pretty tasty little window to hit both of those bets. I’m taking the Raiders here but not confidently. There’s a really good chance Dallas just toasts Las Vegas and Derek Carr and Co. maxed out their season with those two pre-bye wins. With Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb likely out I’ll take the Raiders with the hook. It seems stinkier every time I look at it though. I’m much more comfortable using the Cowboys in moneyline parlays than actually betting on this spread. I’m taking all three unders on Thursday, but this one is the scariest. 

The pick: Cowboys 28, Raiders 21

Props, Best Bets: Tony Pollard overs, Zeke most Turkey Rush Yards

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Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: 
NBC | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App 

Latest Odds:

New Orleans Saints
+7

Tony Jones, Jr. is the bet you make for first touchdown, anytime touchdown and multiple touchdowns in this game. Alvin Kamara is out and Mark Ingram might not play. Jones could be the guy who dives into the end zone first for New Orleans and his prices are fantastic. He’ll be a lightning rod for DFS with his ownership, the Bills defense and the Saints OL injuries. The Bills got truck-sticked by the Colts last week but this is a great spot for them with all the injuries New Orleans is dealing with. Love the under and the Bills here, as long as it’s -6 or lower.

The Pick: Bills 28, Saints 17

Bets: Under, Bills

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV:
FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Indianapolis Colts
+3

Honestly this line completely stinks. The Colts are coming on strong and Jonathan Taylor is getting MVP hype. And he’s a dog at home to Tom Brady but it’s just enough to make you want to REALLY bet the seven-time Super Bowl champ? Right. This is a principle play, to quote my boys from the Cover-3 pod. I got Brady -2.5. Let us not forget how much he dislikes this franchise after quite a few Peyton Manning battles. The Bucs are also getting Vita Vea back and he turns them into the best run defense in the league.

The Pick: Bucs 24, Colts 17

Bets: Bucs -3

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV:
FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Miami Dolphins
+2

Carolina is 1) a much better team with Cam Newton under center and 2) a much better team than the Dolphins. Did you watch the Dolphins last week? They beat up on a bad division rival, covered the spread and didn’t really ever look great. WFT came to play against Carolina and the Panthers still could have won that. These two teams are in different tiers. Carolina’s defense should be embarrassed by last week. I’d bank on three turnovers minimal here.

The Pick: Panthers 24, Dolphins 10

Bets: Panthers -1.5

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: 
CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)  

Latest Odds:

New England Patriots
-7

This is such a spicy game. The Titans have losses against the Jets and Texans (it’s hard to even read out loud) bookend wins against the Chiefs, Bills, Saints and Rams. Figure that out. I don’t think it applies here, because Bill Belichick is out for vengeance. He’s REAL quiet right now and his team is rolling. The Pats have found their identity — efficient play from a clutch young quarterback with a great run game and a sneaky defense — and when that happens the AFC is usually in big, big trouble. The line has gotten a little out of hand here. I probably wouldn’t bet Pats -7 but I did bet Pats -5.5 a lot when it landed. I think New England comes out to issue a statement here relating to their seeding intentions in the AFC. Belichick knows there are two weeks before his bye and he has Tennessee and Buffalo on the schedule. Go 1-0 twice and everything is front of you. 

The Pick: Patriots 35, Titans 10

Bets: Patriots -7

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: 
FOX | Stream: fuboTV (click here)  

Latest Odds:

Green Bay Packers
+1

There might not be anything more terrifying when you have a bet on the Rams this week than seeing Aaron Rodgers jam his busted-up Covid (?) toe into his home camera to show everyone watching the Pat McAfee Show what it looks like. Ordinarily I like my opposing quarterbacks less likely to nuke the defense I bet on. Rodgers seems increasingly likely to treat this injury as a reason to obliterate the Rams defense. It’s very concerning for my Rams best bet. But I’m banking on the better team being the better team on Sunday in this spot. Green Bay just has too many injuries on the offensive line — couple that with Aaron Jones hurting the explosion factor in the pass game — and Los Angeles should take care of biz here. 

The Pick: Rams 24, Packers 21

Bets: Rams -1

For the rest of my picks — and. more importantly — the picks of the nuclear hot Ryan Wilson, check out our NFL Experts Pick Page. If you have a question about a specific game, we almost certainly broke it down on the Pick Six Podcast. And if you still don’t have the answer, by all means hit me up on Twitter for questions about games this week. Happy Thanksgiving! 





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