NFL Week 3 teaser pick rankings: Chiefs among best weekly teaser options in awesome Monday night matchup


Our look at teaser possibilities for Week 2 featured a pretty clear top four, and all four were able to cash successfully, though two (Steelers, Chiefs) needed the extra six points to get there. That pushes our Teaser of the Week to 2-0 over the first two weeks. Who deserves the top two spots in this week’s rankings to get to 3-0?

One definitely has to be the Chiefs. Yes, the Ravens are clearly one of the best teams in the league, but making them 3.5-point favorites against the defending champions seems unwise. The Chargers played about as well as they could last week and the Chiefs still squeezed out a win on the road. Maybe the Ravens have the formula to shut down Patrick Mahomes, but if you tease the Chiefs up to +9.5, do you really think you’ll be sweating it on Monday night? I don’t.

But even though I love the Chiefs, I’m not putting them at No. 1 in this week’s rankings. Keep scrolling to see who earns that spot.

I’ve done the legwork of going through all the lines as of Tuesday night and identifying the best teasing opportunities. Below, I’ve ranked all the sides I think are in play for teasers this week, considering only the standard six-point teasers. You can take the top two options and put them together for my Teaser of the Week, or you can be bold and try and hit a bigger payout.

Ranking teaser options

1. Rams +8 at Bills

The Bills have played so well over their first two games that there’s some scattered buzz about Josh Allen as a potential MVP. But carving up the Jets and Dolphins should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Allen is definitely improved as a passer, but he faces his first real test against a Rams team that held a dangerous Cowboys offense to 17 points in Week 1, then circled back and earned an easy win in Philadelphia as two-point underdogs. Now they’re two-point ‘dogs again in Buffalo, and I can’t see them losing by this teaser margin with how well they’re playing.

2. Chiefs +9.5 at Ravens

The last time the Chiefs with a healthy Patrick Mahomes were more than three-point ‘dogs on the closing line was in Week 6 of 2018, when they covered in a 43-40 loss to the Patriots. They won outright in each of the first two weeks of that season as underdogs of more than a field goal as well. The last time they lost by double digits when underdogs of more than a field goal involved Alex Smith targeting Jeremy Maclin 13 times (Week 4 of 2015). All that is to say it’s highly unlikely Andy Reid’s team is going to get blown out on Monday night.

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3. Patriots PK vs. Raiders

The Raiders came out and stunned the Saints in their home opener, letting the world know they should be taken seriously as a potential playoff contender. But now they have to head to Foxborough and do it against Bill Belichick and a quarterback who’s played far better than Drew Brees through two weeks. I like backing Belichick coming off a loss here and taking care of a Raiders team playing with one less day of rest.

4. Texans +10 at Steelers

The Texans are 0-2 and haven’t been that close to winning either game. But they had the hardest possible schedule to open the season, facing the Chiefs and Ravens in back-to-back weeks. I thought Deshaun Watson played really well last week in a brutal matchup, while the Steelers weren’t all that impressive while facing Jeff Driskel most of the day. Maybe this is the week it clicks for Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh offense, but even if it does, I like Watson’s chances to keep it close.

5. Cardinals +0.5 vs. Lions

I love how the Cardinals look through two weeks, and I don’t give the Lions much of a chance of winning this game if we get the same Lions team from the last two weeks. But we haven’t seen Detroit’s best yet due to a long list of injuries. If their roster is markedly more healthy heading into Sunday than it was last week, they’ll have a sneaky good chance of upending this pick. Watch the injury report closely before locking this one in.

6. Giants +10 vs. 49ers

The Giants defense has played well to date, and Nick Mullens was a noticeable step back from Jimmy Garoppolo in the second half of San Francisco’s win over the Jets. Even though the Giants have to overcome the loss of Saquon Barkley, the injury bug bit the 49ers much harder. Plus, they’ve spent the last few days blasting the turf at MetLife, and if their outrage is legitimate, the prospect of injury is going to be more prevalent in their minds throughout the game (how could it not?). Maybe that’s the slightest of edges that will lock in this cover.

7. Browns -1 vs. Washington

The Browns should beat Washington if the same team from Thursday night shows up in this matchup, but there’s always a chance that the Washington D takes over this game like it did in Week 1. This is about the same line Washington faced in their Week 2 matchup with the Cardinals, and I’d certainly put Arizona well above Cleveland right now. That’s why this one ranks this low.

8. Buccaneers PK at Broncos

Considering Denver’s key injuries, the Bucs should be able to go into Denver and win. But even though Tom Brady won his last two games in Denver, he’s been shaky on the road against the Broncos over the years. Jeff Driskel looked better than expected running the Denver offense in relief last week, and with the Broncos desperate at 0-2, I could see them finding a way to win here. But Tampa Bay’s clear advantage makes them the last team worth considering this week.

Lines to avoid teasing

Bears at Falcons (-4)

The Bears are probably a good teaser team this week, but I can’t put them on my card and then watch Matt Ryan play well enough that Mitchell Trubisky needs to have a big day to keep up. I’m probably being overly cautious by not putting the Bears on the list, but the Trubisky factor can’t be ignored.

Titans (-2.5) at Vikings

At first glance, the Vikings seem like a great teaser play to get them up to +8.5. But there’s a real possibility Minnesota is one of the worst five teams in the league this year, and with how Ryan Tannehill is playing, the Titans could easily ruin a Vikings teaser if Minnesota is unimpressive again.

Panthers at Chargers (-6.5)

The Chargers should be able to win this game, which would make them a good teaser team at -0.5. But we don’t know what will happen at quarterback, and I think worst-case scenario is starting Tyrod Taylor at less than 100%. Plus, the Panthers have shown the ability to score points so far this year.

Bengals at Eagles (-5.5)

The Bengals are certainly a team to consider considering how the Eagles have looked so far this year, but if you think that slow start continues this week, why not just bet the Bengals straight here?

Dolphins at Jaguars (-3)

Can’t tease Jaguars through zero, and while you’d expect the Dolphins to be able to score points against the Jaguars defense after they managed to do it vs. Buffalo, Ryan Fitzpatrick is capable of laying a dud at any time. So if you have to tease the Thursday game with something, I’d go Dolphins, but best to just stay away.

Jets at Colts (-11)

Getting the Colts down to -5 seems pretty safe, right? Well, the lookahead line for this game was just Colts -7, so teasing it barely gets it past where the line was a week ago. That’s not enough value to use this game in a teaser. The Jets can’t just get blown out every week, right?

Cowboys at Seahawks (-5)

The Seahawks are starting to feel like a team that can score whatever number of points they want, but I’m not ruling out the Cowboys being energized from their comeback win over the Falcons and going blow-for-blow with Seattle here either.

Packers at Saints (-3)

The Packers have beaten a pair of struggling teams with awful secondaries over the first two weeks, so I’m not ready to anoint them as the NFC favorites. The Saints typically start turning around their annual slow starts in Week 3, but I can’t tease them through zero. So stay far away from this game in teasers.





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