NFL Week 4 odds and picks: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs cover against Patriots, Joe Burrow gets first win

And just like that, we’ve reached the first quarter of the 2020 season. As we look to Week 4 in the NFL, there are a number of juicy matchups that are worth sinking your teeth into. That includes Cam Newton and the Patriots heading int Kansas City to face a white-hot Patrick Mahomes, who is coming off a five-touchdown performance on Monday night. We’ll also have the first career start for Nick Foles in a Bears uniform and we have Brett Rypien’s Broncos taking on the 0-3 New York Jets on Thursday Night Football! Well, maybe that last one isn’t so appealing. 

In any event, the start of Week 4 brings us another week of picks. After a strong Week 2 — particularly on my Locks of the Week (4-1 ATS, 5-0 SU) — we did come back down to earth a bit, going 9-7 ATS, and that was really due to the poor production from my locks (1-4 ATS). Outside of those missed calls, we were a respectable 8-3 ATS for the rest of the Week 3 slate, which saved us. Below, we’ll look to get back on track with those locks and stay sharp on the rest of Week 4. All odds are via William Hill Sportsbook. 

Locks of the Week

Cleveland at Dallas

1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Point spread:
 Dallas -4.5

The Cowboys have not been kind to gamblers through the first three weeks of the season, going 0-3 ATS for the first time since 1986. The good news here, however, is that clubs that have started 0-3 ATS over the last 10 years that are favored in their fourth game cover 64% of the time. Dallas’ offense is potent enough to outlast a Cleveland team that is currently on a seven-game road losing streak ATS. 

Pick: Dallas -4.5 
Score prediction: Dallas 33, Cleveland 17

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L.A. Chargers at Tampa Bay

1 p.m. ET (CBS) 
Point spread: Tampa Bay -7.5

Touchdown favorites are 11-3 ATS this season, which bodes well for Tom Brady and the Buccaneers when they host the Los Angeles Chargers. That said, L.A. is responsible for one of those losses, covering against the Chiefs (-8.5) in Week 2. The Chargers are banged up and the Buccaneers seem to be finding their stride after a shaky start to the season. Tom Brady is also 6-1-1 in his last eight starts as a touchdown favorite.

Pick: Tampa Bay -7.5 
Score prediction: Tampa Bay 27, L.A. Chargers 17. 

Jacksonville at Cincinnati 

1 p.m. ET (CBS) 
Point spread: Cincinnati -3 

Joe Burrow nearly earned his first win in the NFL last week against Philadelphia but had to settle for a tie instead. While he may not have to wait much longer to see ‘W’ No. 1, Sunday’s matchup between his Bengals and a feisty Jaguars team will be close. Gardner Minshew is 7-3 ATS as an underdog in his career, including at 2-0 ATS record this year. Jacksonville has also been stellar at covering when given extended rest. Over the last ten seasons, Jacksonville has the best cover percentage (70%) when given 7-plus days in between games. 

Pick: Jacksonville and the points
Score prediction: Cincinnati 21, Jacksonville 20

Pittsburgh at Tennessee 

1 p.m. ET (CBS) 
Point spread: Pittsburgh -1

This game has been postponed and will be played either Monday or Tuesday due to the Titans‘ COVID-19 positive tests. Aside from that, I like the spot the Steelers find themselves in. Their defense is arguably the best in the NFL and the offense under Ben Roethlisberger has bounced back nicely after a dreadful year in 2019 after the quarterback was sidelined due to injury. Despite their 3-0 record, Tennessee is 0-3 ATS which hasn’t happened since the Cowboys did it in 1979. I’d also look at the Under 47 here. Pittsburgh road Unders as 26-7 over the last five seasons. 

Pick: Pittsburgh -1
Score prediction: Steelers 24, Titans 20 

New England at Kansas City 

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS) 
Point spread: Kansas City -7 

The Chiefs flexed their championship muscles on Monday night, handling the Ravens from wire-to-wire. Now, they get a New England Patriots team that is still trying to find its way with quarterback Cam Newton. While New England’s offense may be able to put up points against the Chiefs defense, I think the Patriots secondary is a bit suspect, which could open the door for Patrick Mahomes (2-1 ATS against New England) to once again light up the scoreboard. Andy Reid also has a strong ATS record against Bill Belichick in his career, covering 60% of the time.  

Pick: Kansas City -7
Score prediction: Kansas City 27, New England 17

Rest of the bunch 

Denver at N.Y. Jets 
The pick: Denver
Score prediction: Denver 17, N.Y. Jets 10

Arizona (-3.5) at Carolina 
The pick:
 Arizona -3.5
Score prediction: Arizona 24, Carolina 17

Seattle (-6.5) at Miami 
The pick:
 Seattle -6.5
Score prediction: Seattle 33, Miami 17

Baltimore (-13) at Washington 
The pick:
 Baltimore -13
Score prediction: Baltimore 33, Washington 14

Indianapolis (-2.5) at Chicago 
The pick:
 Indianapolis -2.5
Score prediction: Indianapolis 23, Chicago 17

New Orleans (-4) at Detroit 
The pick:
 Detroit and the points
Score prediction: Detroit 24, New Orleans 23

N.Y. Giants at L.A. Rams (-13) 
The pick:
 L.A. Rams -13
Score prediction: L.A. Rams 27, N.Y. Giants 13

Minnesota at Houston (-3.5) 
The pick:
 Minnesota and the points
Score prediction: Minnesota 27, Houston 20

Buffalo (-3) at Las Vegas 
The pick:
 Buffalo -3
Score prediction: Buffalo 24, Las Vegas 20

Philadelphia at San Francisco (-7) 
The pick:
 Philadelphia and the points
Score prediction: Philadelphia 24, San Francisco 20

Atlanta at Green Bay (-7.5) 
The pick:
 Green Bay -7.5
Score prediction: Green Bay 27, Atlanta 17

Picks Record

Against the spread in Week 3: 9-7
ATS overall: 25-22-1

Straight up in Week 3: 9-6-1
SU overall: 31-16-1

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