NFL Week 7 betting nuggets


Week 7 of the NFL schedule features three double-digit favorites, including two teams favored by at least 15 points (Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams). There has not been a week with two teams favored by that many points since 2013. Favorites look for their third straight winning week after going 8-6 ATS the back-to-back weeks.

The only team undefeated against the spread (ATS) is the Dallas Cowboys, who are on bye. The next-longest active cover streak belongs to the Green Bay Packers at five straight. They host the Washington Football Team, which is 1-5 ATS, the worst mark in the NFL.


Week 6 Season Standings

Favorites: 8-6 ATS this week; 43-51 ATS this season

Road teams: 9-5 ATS this week (9-5 SU); 54-40 ATS this season (50-44 SU)

Road underdogs: 3-2 ATS this week; 33-22 ATS this season

Unders: 7-5-2 ATS this week; 50-42-2 this season

Superlatives

Best records ATS: Dallas (6-0), Green Bay (5-1), Arizona (5-1)

Worst records ATS: Washington (1-5), New York Jets (1-4), San Francisco (1-4)

Highest over percentage: Dallas (5-1), Los Angeles Rams (4-1-1)

Lowest over percentage: Chicago (1-5), Cincinnati (1-5), Los Angeles Chargers (1-5), Seattle (1-4-1), Pittsburgh (1-4-1)

• Teams favored in every game: Denver, Kansas City, Tampa Bay

Teams to be underdog in every game: Houston, Philadelphia, Detroit, New York Jets


Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5), Sunday at 1 ET

  • Cincinnati games are 5-1 to the under this season, including all three road games going under the total. Chicago and the Los Angeles Chargers are the only other teams 5-1 to the under.

  • Lamar Jackson is 19-11-1 ATS in conference games and 24-16-2 ATS in his career.

  • Joe Burrow is 6-2 ATS in his career as an underdog of at least three points.

Carolina Panthers (-3) at New York Giants, Sunday at 1 ET

  • New York is 0-3 ATS at home this season. Daniel Jones is 4-11 ATS at home in his career. New York is 4-16 ATS as a home underdog since 2018.

  • Matt Rhule is 3-4 outright as a favorite (also 3-4 ATS). Six of the seven games went under the total.

  • Carolina is 8-2 ATS on the road under Matt Rhule.

Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers (-8.5), Sunday at 1 ET

  • Green Bay is 5-1 ATS this season, tied for second-best in the NFL, including five straight covers.

  • Washington is 1-5 ATS this season, worst in the NFL, including 0-3 ATS as an underdog.

  • Washington is 0-4-1 ATS as an underdog of at least seven points under Ron Rivera.

Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Tennessee Titans Sunday at 1 ET

  • Entering this week, Kansas City was one of three teams to be favored in every game, along with Tampa Bay and Denver. Denver is an underdog this week against Cleveland. Kansas City is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games including the playoffs. It has not covered back-to-back games since Weeks 6-8 last season (three straight).

  • Kansas City is 0-3 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

  • The over is 25-6-1 in Ryan Tannehill starts with Tennessee.

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Miami Dolphins, Sunday at 1 ET

  • Miami is the fifth team to not have a bye following a London game. The previous four went 2-2 SU and ATS. Two were in 2017 and two were in 2016, and all were following 9:30 AM ET games.

  • Atlanta had been an underdog in 14 straight road games entering this week. The last time Atlanta was favored on the road was Week 6 of 2019 (lost at Arizona). Since 2015, Atlanta is 7-13 ATS as a road favorite (12-8 SU).

  • Miami has the worst average cover margin in the NFL (-10.1 PPG). Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last five games after winning its season opener as a road underdog in New England (0-3 ATS last three games).

  • Tua Tagovailoa is 4-1 ATS and 3-2 SU as an underdog in his career.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-7), Sunday at 1 ET

  • Bill Belichick is 57-32 ATS after a loss with New England (6-6 ATS last two seasons since Tom Brady left).

  • New York is 0-3 ATS on the road and 1-4 ATS overall this season. The 1-4 ATS mark is tied with San Francisco for the second-worst mark this season (Washington: 1-5 ATS).

  • New England is 0-4 outright and 1-3 ATS at home this season, including two outright losses as a favorite.

  • New England is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings and 11-0 SU in the last 11 meetings. New England has covered four of the last five home meetings, winning all five games by at least 14 points.

  • New York is one of four teams to be an underdog in every game this season (Detroit, Philadelphia, Houston).

Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-15), Sunday at 4:05 ET

  • Matthew Stafford has never been favored by more than 10 points until this game, when he faces his former team.

  • Detroit hasn’t been an underdog of at least 15 points since Week 10 of 2009 (+17 at Minnesota).

  • Los Angeles has been a favorite of at least 15 points only one time under Sean McVay, and it lost outright to the New York Jets as a 17-point favorite last season. That Jets team was also the last winless team in the NFL.

  • Detroit has gone under the total in four straight games. Los Angeles is 4-1-1 to the over this season, the second-best mark in the league. All three Los Angeles home games have gone over the total. Double-digit favorites are 8-0 outright and 6-2 ATS this season.

  • Detroit is one of four teams to be an underdog in every game this season (New York Jets, Philadelphia, Houston).

Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders (-3), Sunday at 4:05 ET

  • Las Vegas is 0-6 ATS in its last six games as a favorite and 3-9 ATS as a favorite since 2019.

  • Nine of Las Vegas’ 11 home games at Allegiant Stadium have gone over the total since it opened last season.

  • Philadelphia is one of four teams to be an underdog in every game this season (New York Jets, Detroit, Houston).

Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13.5), Sunday at 4:25 ET

  • Double-digit favorites are 8-0 outright and 6-2 ATS this season.

  • Entering this week, Tampa Bay was one of three teams to be favored in every game, along with Kansas City and Denver. Denver is an underdog this week against Cleveland.

  • Unders are 5-1 in Chicago games this season, tied for the best under mark this season (Cincinnati, Los Angeles Chargers).

  • All three Tampa Bay home games have gone over the total this season.

Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-17.5), Sunday at 4:25 ET

  • Double-digit favorites are 8-0 outright and 6-2 ATS this season.

  • Arizona is 5-1 ATS this season, tied for the second-best mark in the league. Arizona has covered four straight games.

  • Kyler Murray is 3-6 ATS as a home favorite (5-4 outright).

  • Houston is one of four teams to be an underdog in every game this season (New York Jets, Philadelphia, Houston).

  • Houston is the fourth team in the last 40 seasons to be at least a 17-point underdog twice in their first seven games (2019 Miami, 2013 Jacksonville, 1999 Cleveland). Houston was a 17.5-point underdog against Buffalo (lost 40-0).

Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5), Sunday at 8:20 ET

  • San Francisco is 0-7 ATS as a home favorite since the start of last season. Kyle Shanahan is 3-14-2 ATS as a home favorite. Since 2014, San Francisco is 4-23-2 ATS as a home favorite.

  • Kyle Shanahan is 8-19-2 ATS as a favorite. San Francisco is 2-7 outright in its last nine games as a favorite of at least three points (2-2 this year with back-to-back losses).

  • San Francisco is 1-4 ATS this season, tied with the New York Jets for the second-worst ATS mark this season (Washington: 1-5 ATS).

  • Indianapolis has covered three straight games.

New Orleans Saints (-4.5) at Seattle Seahawks, Monday at 8:15 ET

  • Geno Smith has covered six straight starts dating back to 2014.

  • New Orleans is 31-12 ATS on the road since 2016, 20-7 ATS since 2018, and 14-5 ATS since 2019.

  • Seattle has not been an underdog of at least four points since Week 5 of 2018. Since 2011, Seattle is 5-0 ATS and 3-2 SU as a home underdog. Overall, Seattle is 7-2 ATS as a home underdog under Pete Carroll including the playoffs (5-4 outright).

  • New Orleans has covered nine of its last 12 games following a bye.

  • Since 2014, New Orleans is 3-8 ATS on Monday games.

  • Home teams are 5-1 ATS on Monday games this season. Overs are 5-1 on Monday games.



Source link