Another week down in the NFL and another solid set of picks for us here. We went 8-4-1 ATS overall and continued to stay very hot with our locks of the week, which went 3-1-1 in Week 7. That brings us to a 23-8-4 ATS mark for the season in that section of our picks. We’ll look to keep that rolling as we turn our attention to Week 8 that features a number of intriguing games.
Below, we’ll dive into all of those contests and make our picks, which includes one team finally getting into the win column. We won’t waste any time getting into that matchup as it’s included in our five locks of the week.
2021 record
Locks of the Week ATS: 23-8-4
ATS: 54-49-4
ML: 69-38
Eagles at Lions
Latest Odds: Detroit Lions +3.5
Yes, the Lions are 0-7 to begin the season, but Detroit has played extremely hard in every one of their games and has been knocking on the door of a victory a number of times, including last week when they held a lead heading into the fourth quarter against the Rams. They’ve also been one of the better teams to wager on this season, owning a 4-3 ATS record. Coming up in Week 8, they’ll host an Eagles team that has been disjointed offensively at times with Jalen Hurts under center and are currently losers of two straight. Over its last three games, Philly is below Detroit in yards per play, so things are trending in the direction of the Lions finally getting over the hump.
Projected score: Lions 24, Eagles 21
The pick: Lions +3.5
Buccaneers at Saints
Latest Odds: New Orleans Saints +5.5
The Saints offense couldn’t get anything rolling on offense outside of Alvin Kamara, who carried the club to a win over the Seahawks on “Monday Night Football.” While Kamara is capable of doing that on a weekly basis, he now faces a Buccaneers team that is No. 4 in the NFL in DVOA against the run. Tampa Bay will likely see some tough sledding on the ground as well, with the Saints boasting the No. 2 ranked defense against the run, but I have much more faith in Tom Brady and the Bucs offense putting up points than Jameis Winston right now. New Orleans has also struggled against teams with winning records, owning a 1-7 ATS mark of their last eight games under that circumstance.
Projected score: Buccaneers 28, Saints 21
The pick: Buccaneers -5
Panthers at Falcons
Latest Odds: Atlanta Falcons -3
We have two teams that are trending in entirely different directions. The Panthers come into Week 8 averaging the lowest yards per play (3.7) over the last three weeks and have lost four straight. The latest loss included Matt Rhule benching Sam Darnold as the offense managed just a field goal in the loss to the Giants. Meanwhile, Atlanta has won three of its last four and just dropped 30 points against the Dolphins, which was led by a stellar performance by rookie tight end Kyle Pitts (seven catches, 163 yards). I’ll gladly lay the field goal and ride the hot hand with the Falcons.
Projected score: Falcons 27, Panthers 20
The pick: Falcons -3
Dolphins at Bills
Latest Odds: Buffalo Bills -13.5
The Bills have not only one of the best records in the AFC, but they’ve also been blowing away the competition in the process. Entering Week 8, they have the highest average margin of victory in the league at 17.5. With that in mind, the double-digit spread against Miami shouldn’t scare you too much. The Dolphins have lost six straight after winning in Week 1 and are now facing the No. 1 ranked defense in the league in DVOA. After a week of rest, Josh Allen and company should be firing on all cylinders. It also doesn’t hurt that Buffalo is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games as the favorite.
Projected score: Bills 33, Dolphins 17
The pick: Bills -13.5
Bengals at Jets
Latest Odds: New York Jets +10
The Bengals have been the surprise story in the NFL this season, as they are currently the top seed in the AFC. They’re now being looked at as one of the top teams by getting a double-digit spread this week against the Jets. New York is fresh off a blowout loss to the Patriots in a game that saw rookie quarterback Zach Wilson leave due to injury. They’ll now either trot out Mike White or Joe Flacco as their starter Sunday, which shouldn’t matter all too much here. The Bengals are the better team and are averaging 6.2 yards per play (third-highest in the NFL) this season. Meanwhile, the Jets have a league-worst -15.8 average point differential this season.
Projected score: Bengals 28, Jets 13
The pick: Bengals -10
Rest of the bunch
Packers at Cardinals
Projected score: Cardinals 28, Packers 20
The pick: Cardinals -6.5
Titans at Colts
Projected score: Colts 23, Titans 21
The pick: Colts +1
Rams at Texans
Projected score: Rams 30, Texans 17
The pick: Texans +14.5
Steelers at Browns
Projected score: Browns 23, Steelers 17
The pick: Browns -3.5
49ers at Bears
Projected score: 49ers 24, Bears 20
The pick: 49ers -3
Patriots at Chargers
Projected score: Chargers 28, Patriots 24
The pick: Patriots +5.5
Jaguars at Seahawks
Projected score: Seahawks 23, Jaguars 16
The pick: Seahawks -3
Washington at Broncos
Projected score: Broncos 27, Washington 21
The pick: Broncos -3
Cowboys at Vikings
Projected score: Cowboys 30, Vikings 27
The pick: Cowboys -2.5
Giants at Chiefs
Projected score: Chiefs 27, Giants 21
The pick: Giants +10
