Nuggets vs. Mavericks odds, line, spread: 2020 NBA picks, March 11 predictions from model on 51-32 roll

The Denver Nuggets and the Dallas Mavericks will square off on Wednesday evening in a battle between Western Conference playoff contenders. Nikola Jokic leads the way for the Nuggets, while the Mavericks are keyed by the duo of Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. On the injury front, the Nuggets are healthy, with some uncertainty on the status of the Mavericks, as the home team enters on the second night of a back-to-back set. 

Tip-off is at 8 p.m. ET at the American Airlines Center. Sportsbooks list the Nuggets as one-point favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 219.5 in the latest Nuggets vs. Mavericks odds. Before you make any Mavericks vs. Nuggets picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has already returned almost $4,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season. It also entered Week 21 a blistering 51-32 on all top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Nuggets vs. Mavericks. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Mavericks vs. Nuggets:

  • Nuggets vs. Mavericks spread: Nuggets -1
  • Nuggets vs. Mavericks over-under: 219.5 points
  • Nuggets vs. Mavericks money line: Mavericks -104, Nuggets -111
  • DEN: The Nuggets are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games.
  • DAL: The Mavericks are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games.

Why the Nuggets can cover

The model knows that the Nuggets are a tremendous offensive team. On a per-possession basis, Denver has the No. 8 offense in the NBA and, against a below-average overall defense in Dallas, the Nuggets have plenty of advantages. The Mavericks rank second-worst in the NBA at forcing turnovers and, in contrast, the Nuggets land in the top-10 in turnover avoidance. The Nuggets are also an elite offensive rebounding team, grabbing 28.2 percent of their own misses, and second-chance opportunities could be crucial against the Mavericks. 

The Nuggets also boast an above-average overall defense, coupled with above-average metrics in shooting efficiency allowed, turnover creation and free throw prevention. The Mavericks’ offense is elite by any measure, but Denver’s defense should be able to put up resistance. 

Why the Mavericks can cover

Even so, Denver isn’t a lock to cover the Mavericks vs. Nuggets spread on Wednesday. The model also realizes that Dallas is virtually unstoppable on the offensive side of the floor. Doncic is averaging 28.7 points, 9.4 rebounds and 8.7 assists per game this season, and he is flanked by an impressive and versatile big man in Porzingis. The pairing keys the Mavericks in producing the No. 1 offense in the NBA, comfortably leading the league in points scored per possession. Dallas also ranks in the top four of the NBA in shooting efficiency and turnover avoidance, and the Mavericks are also an above-average offensive rebounding team, pulling down 26.2 percent of their own missed shots. 

Defensively, the Mavericks aren’t quite as terrifying, but Dallas does an excellent job at keeping the opposition off the free throw line, ranking No. 6 in the NBA in free throw rate allowed.

How to make Nuggets vs. Mavericks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, with both Gary Harris and Porzingis projected to exceed their scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations.

So who wins Nuggets vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Mavericks vs. Nuggets spread you need to jump on Wednesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

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