Patriots vs. Buccaneers odds, line, spread: Sunday Night Football picks, predictions from model on 123-81 run

After opening the 2021 season with two victories, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers suffered a 34-24 defeat to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3. That was the team’s first loss since Nov. 29, 2020 and, one week later, Tampa Bay hits the road for a high-profile tilt against the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football. The Buccaneers are led by Tom Brady, with Brady making his return to Foxborough for the first time since leaving the Patriots. New England is 1-2 on the season and they will also look to right the ship after a double-digit Week 3 loss.

Kickoff is at 8:20 p.m. ET. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Buccaneers as 6.5-point favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 49.5 in the latest Patriots vs. Buccaneers odds. Before you make any Buccaneers vs. Patriots picks and NFL predictions, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 4 of the 2021 season on an incredible 123-81 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Buccaneers vs. Patriots. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NFL betting lines and trends for Buccaneers vs. Patriots:

  • Patriots vs. Buccaneers spread: Buccaneers -6.5
  • Patriots vs. Buccaneers over-under: 49.5 points
  • Patriots vs. Buccaneers money line: Buccaneers -280, Patriots +230
  • TB: The Over has hit in all three Buccaneers’ games this season
  • NE: The Patriots are 1-2 against the spread this season

Featured Game | New England Patriots vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Why Tom Brady and the Buccaneers can cover

The Patriots are averaging just 5.4 net yards per pass attempt (26th in the NFL) with three interceptions and only two touchdown passes. Overall, New England is averaging only 18 points per game, ranking No. 26 in the NFL, and is 25th in points per drive (1.77).

The Buccaneers are excellent against the run, allowing only 63.7 yards per game, and are holding opponents to just 3.1 yards per carry. Tampa Bay has also allowed only one rushing touchdown to the opposition in 2021. They are also stellar in red zone efficiency, allowing just 58 percent of drives to end in a touchdown, and Tampa Bay should be able to take advantage of New England’s lack of explosiveness. That defensive projection, coupled with the league’s most productive offense (103 points in three games), could lead to overall success for the Buccaneers.

Why Mac Jones and the Patriots can cover

New England’s defense is quite impressive. The Patriots are a top-unit in scoring defense, allowing only 17 points per game, and they are giving up only 1.33 points per drive in 2021. Bill Belichick’s team is also a top-five unit in total defense (282.3 yards allowed per game) and first downs allowed (fewer than 18 per game), and they are No. 2 overall in passing yards allowed, giving up fewer than 160 per game. 

For the season, New England has allowed only three touchdown passes while generating five interceptions, and opponents have only produced 5.3 net yards per pass attempt, a top-five figure. In addition to overall efficiency, the Patriots are also creating havoc, forcing a turnover on 15.2 percent of possessions to land in the top eight of the NFL. 

How to make Patriots vs. Buccaneers picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, with both teams projected to combine for 50 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. Go here to see who to pick.

So who wins Buccaneers vs. Patriots on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Buccaneers vs. Patriots spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model that’s 123-81 on its NFL picks, and find out.

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