Pelicans vs. Kings odds, line, spread: 2020 NBA picks, March 11 predictions from simulation on 51-32 run

De’Aaron Fox and the Sacramento Kings host Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday. The Kings remain without the services of Marvin Bagley (foot), but Richaun Holmes (shoulder) will make his third appearance after a 25-game absence. For the Pelicans, JJ Redick (hamstring) will remain sidelined.

Tip-off is set for 10:30 p.m ET from the Golden 1 Center. Sportsbooks list the Pelicans as 1.5-point favorites, while the over-under is 235 in the latest Pelicans vs. Kings odds. Before you make any Kings vs. Pelicans picks or NBA predictions, you’ll want to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It’s already returned almost $3,000 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 21 on a blistering 51-32 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has locked in on this Western Conference showdown and generated another strong against the spread pick for Pelicans vs. Kings. You should head here to see it. Now, here are several NBA odds and trends for Kings vs. Pelicans:

  • Pelicans vs. Kings spread: New Orleans -1.5
  • Pelicans vs. Kings over-under: 235 points
  • Pelicans vs. Kings money line: New Orleans -125, Sacramento +105
  • NOP: Pelicans have covered 86 percent of the time as road underdogs.
  • SAC: Kings are 8-2 ATS in the past 10 games.

Why the Pelicans can cover

The model is well aware that home court advantage has meant little to the Kings this season. Sacramento is one of the few teams with a better point differential on the road than at home. They have a 64 percent cover rate on the road, which is all the way down to 43 percent at home. Meanwhile, the Pels have one of the NBA’s best road cover rates (57 percent) and an even better rate (86 percent) as road favorites. The Pelicans already have beaten the Kings in Sacramento once this season and they didn’t have Zion Williamson for that game. 

Williamson could create plenty of matchup problems for the Kings, who are still without Bagley and will have to play Holmes in limited spurts in his third game back. Sacramento’s best option for Williamson defensively is Harrison Barnes, who is at a 60-pound disadvantage. The rookie should be able to bully his way to the rim at will against Sacramento.

Why the Kings can cover

Just because the Pelicans seem to have the advantage on paper doesn’t mean they will cover the Pelicans vs. Kings spread. The model knows Sacramento has covered the spread in eight of the past 10 games, and Luke Walton’s decision to move Buddy Hield’s offense to the bench seems to have sparked the team as they make a playoff push. The return of Holmes will be key for Sacramento’s hopes of reaching the playoffs, as they have desperately missed his physical interior presence.

Per CleaningTheGlass, the Kings have been 5.4 points better per 100 possessions with Holmes on the court this season. With that efficiency differential, Holmes adds an expected 14 wins over the course of an 82-game season. Even with Holmes playing limited minutes, Sacramento has covered the spread in both games since he returned.

How to make Pelicans vs. Kings picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total. In fact, the model is projecting Brandon Ingram, De’Aaron Fox, and Richaun Holmes all to finish below their scoring averages. It also says one side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time. You can only see which team to back here.

So who wins Pelicans vs. Kings? And which side of the spread cashes over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Pelicans vs. Kings spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.

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