Raiders at Patriots Week 3 picks, odds: Point spread, total, player props and betting trends for Sunday’s game

One of the biggest surprises to the 2020 season may be the Las Vegas Raiders getting off to such a hot start. While nearly all the attention being paid in the AFC West is to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Raiders have managed to enter Week 3 undefeated, which includes an impressive Week 2 win over the Saints. Las Vegas’ offense has been the big storyline, posting back-to-back 34-point showings. They will face arguably their biggest challenge to date, however, as they roll into Foxborough to face the Patriots at Gillette Stadium. 

New England is coming off a loss to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday Night Football. Cam Newton nearly won it for the Patriots at the end of regulation but was stopped at the Seattle 1-yard line as he tried to rush in the game-winning touchdown. Despite the loss, the Newton in New England experience has passed with flying colors to this point as the former league MVP is completing 71.4% of his passes and is tied for the NFL lead in rushing touchdowns. Containing him will be one of the biggest challenges for the Raiders in remaining undefeated. 

Here, we’re going to jump into all the betting angles surrounding this game. We’ll give you everything you need to know ranging from the spread, the Over/Under total, and a number of player props that will give you an edge in your Week 3 wagers. All odds via William Hill Sportsbook. 

How to watch

Date: Sunday, Sept. 27 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Mass.) 
CBS | Stream: CBS All Access
Follow: CBS Sports App

Raiders at Patriots (-6)

The line began the week at Patriots -5.5 and did a bit of jockeying particularly on Tuesday. After moving up to Patriots -6 on Monday, it dropped a whole point on Tuesday before creeping back up to Patriots -6 where it held for the better part of the week. It bumped down to Patriots -5.5 on Thursday afternoon but was back to Patriots -6 by Saturday morning.

The pick: Patriots -6. Over the last five seasons, the Raiders are 11-19 ATS after a win, which is the worst mark in the NFL. Meanwhile, New England is 9-4 ATS after a loss, which is the third-best in the NFL. Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is also 1-4 ATS and 0-5 SU in his career coming into a road contest on short rest. 

Over/Under 47 points

After opening at 46.5, the line vaulted to 48 on Tuesday, which is likely a response to Las Vegas’ win over the Saints on Monday Night Football. The number went as high at 48.5 on Tuesday afternoon before falling to 47.5 on Friday morning and then to 47 by Saturday morning.

The pick: Over 47. The Over has hit in both of Las Vegas’ games this year and is 4-2 in New England’s last six games. Both of these teams have offenses that can put up points and should continue to do so on Sunday. 

First half: Patriots -3, O/U 23.5

The pick: Over 23.5. Las Vegas is averaging 17 first-half points over its first two games and the Patriots dropped 14 points through the first two quarters last week in Seattle. I expect the scoring to start early and often for these squads. 

Player props

Cam Newton total passing touchdowns: Under 1.5 (+100). Newton has yet to have a multi-passing touchdown day with the Patriots and I don’t expect to see it here either. If New England gets within spitting distance of the end zone, they’ve shown over the last two weeks that they’ll utilize the quarterback’s legs more than his arm. 

Cam Newton total rushing yards: Over 45.5 (-110). The Patriots will not only design runs for Newton but if he sees a lane when he drops back, he won’t be afraid to take it. He already has 26 rushing attempts through two games, and with that type of volume, he should hit this Over. (Ed. note: This pick was originally made at Over 41.5.)

Derek Carr total passing touchdowns: Over 1.5 (+110). This isn’t exactly the New England secondary of 2019. So far, the unit has allowed five passing touchdowns through the first two weeks. This group could be particularly susceptible to tight ends, which would play directly into Carr and the Raiders’ hand with Darren Waller at their disposal. Carr is also averaging two touchdowns per game.

Rex Burkhead total rushing and receiving yards: Over 53.5 (-115). With James White out, Burkhead will work as the team’s lead receiving back, which sets himself up quite nicely to hit the Over here. He was targeted six times by Cam Newton in Sunday’s loss to the Seahawks and came down with 47 receiving yards. He’ll also get his opportunities as a runner so he’ll have multiple avenues to pick up the necessary yards. 

Julian Edelman total receptions: Over 4.5 (-145). Edelman is averaging nine targets per game throughout this season and should continue to be a key piece to the passing game for Cam Newton.

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