Raptors vs. Warriors odds, line, spread: 2020 NBA picks, Steph Curry predictions from model on 49-31 run

The Toronto Raptors (43-18) and the Golden State Warriors (14-48) square off on Thursday evening in San Francisco. The matchup is a rematch of the 2019 NBA Finals and, in addition, the contest marks the return of Stephen Curry from a hand injury he sustained in November. Draymond Green (knee) is questionable for the Warriors, with Marc Gasol (hamstring), Serge Ibaka (knee) and Fred VanVleet (shoulder) listed as questionable for Toronto. 

Tip-off is at 10:30 p.m. ET at Chase Center. Sportsbooks list Toronto as a 7.5-point road favorite, holding steady from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 220.5 in the latest Raptors vs. Warriors odds. Before making any Warriors vs. Raptors picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned almost $4,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season. It also entered Week 20 a blistering 49-31 on all top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Raptors vs. Warriors. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA odds and trends for Warriors vs. Raptors:

  • Raptors vs. Warriors spread: Raptors -7.5
  • Raptors vs. Warriors over-under: 220.5 points
  • Raptors vs. Warriors money line: Raptors -345, Warriors +268
  • TOR: The Raptors are 4-4 against the spread in the last eight games
  • GSW: The Warriors are 2-5 against the spread in the last seven games

Why the Raptors can cover

The model has considered that the Raptors are an elite defensive team, and that provides Toronto with an incredibly high baseline. Nick Nurse’s squad ranks No. 2 in overall defensive efficiency this season, with top-tier marks in shooting efficiency allowed and turnover creation. 

Toronto does have a weakness with defensive rebounding but, with the Warriors struggling to create second-chance opportunities on the offensive glass, the Raptors should be in a favorable position. Toronto is closer to league-average on the offensive end, but the Warriors have one of the worst defensive profiles in the NBA. The Raptors do have the ability to shoot efficiently, ranking in the top 10 of the league in effective field-goal percentage, and Toronto has a two-way advantage in this game.

Why the Warriors can cover

Even so, Toronto isn’t a lock to cover the Raptors vs. Warriors spread in Curry’s return to the floor. The model has also considered that the Warriors have the worst record in the NBA, but they are playing better basketball in recent days, winning two of the last three contests. Golden State has a top-10 free throw rate in the NBA on the offensive side and, with the Raptors acting as a below-average team in preventing free throw attempts, that is an edge for the home team to exploit. 

The Warriors are also very good at creating turnovers, which can increase variance, and Golden State’s profile includes an above-average ability to keep opponents off the free-throw line. Andrew Wiggins, averaging 20.1 points per game since arriving in the Bay Area, is a player to watch, especially against a Raptors squad that is battling injury issues. Finally, Curry’s return could spark Golden State’s offense, especially if he can stretch the defense with his patented long-range shooting.

How to make Raptors vs. Warriors picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, with Jordan Poole and Marquese Chriss projected to exceed their scoring averages, while Curry scores around 20 points in his return. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations.

So who wins Raptors vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread hits in well over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Warriors vs. Raptors spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.  

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