Rebel Stakes odds, predictions 2020: Expert who has nailed 9 Derby doubles reveals picks

One horse will take a major step toward qualifying for the Kentucky Derby when a field of eight horses enters the starting gate on Saturday for the 2020 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark. One of the important races on the road to the Derby, the Rebel Stakes 2020 will award 50 Derby qualifying points to the winner, guaranteeing them a spot in the Run for the Roses. The Bob Baffert-trained Nadal is the 5-2 favorite in the 2020 Rebel Stakes odds. 

Three other Rebel Stakes contenders — Basin (3-1), Silver Prospector (7-2) and Three Technique (7-2) — are 7-2 or shorter in the 2020 Rebel Stakes field. Because of the coronavirus pandemic, Oaklawn Park officials announced that Saturday’s card will be raced without fans in attendance. Post time for the 1 1/16-mile race is 6:23 p.m. ET. With very little separating the top four choices, I believe the Rebel Stakes offers plenty of betting value. I have some strong opinions on the race and have made my 2020 Rebel Stakes picks over at SportsLine.

I hope to continue the success I had last year in the Kentucky Derby prep races. In April I scored the exacta and trifecta in the Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass Stakes and Wood Memorial on the same day. One week later, I hit the same bets in the Arkansas Derby.

In addition, last month I had the exacta, trifecta and superfecta in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, turning a $51 investment into $154.50. One week later, I gave out a $5 exacta in the Sam F. Davis Stakes that paid out $71. Plus, I’ve hit nine of the last 11 Oaks-Derby doubles at Churchill Downs. That means I’ve held a ticket with the winners of both the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby all but two times in the last 11 years. Anyone who has followed my horse racing picks is way, way up.

Now, I have analyzed the 2020 Rebel Stakes field and revealed where every horse will finish. I’m sharing my picks here.

Top 2020 Rebel Stakes predictions

One surprise: I am low on Silver Prospector, even though he’s one of the favorites at 7-2. In fact, I think Silver Prospector barely hits the board. The Steve Asmussen trainee has three wins and two thirds in eight career starts, which is tied for the most number of starts among the 2020 Rebel Stakes contenders. He is coming off a win in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

However, he is giving five pounds to all but one of his rivals (No Parole). In addition, he finished fourth in the Smarty Jones Stakes, a race that was raced in the mud at Oaklawn. With rain in the forecast, there’s a chance he could encounter the mud again.

I’m also fading No Parole, who’s listed at 8-1. Trained by Tom Amoss, No Parole is a perfect 3-for-3 in his young career, winning those races by a combined 34 lengths. One of those wins came in the mud, and rain is in the forecast for Saturday.

But No Parole has faced only Louisiana breds so far in his career, and this will be his first start in open company. In addition, he has set easy leads in each of his three starts and is not likely to get another easy lead on Saturday. I see value elsewhere in the 2020 Rebel Stakes lineup.

How to make 2020 Rebel Stakes picks

However, I am high on a horse who struggled in the last race but is set for major improvement in this run. I’m including this surprising horse in all of my exactas, trifectas and superfectas, and so should you. I’m sharing which horse to back, and my entire projected 2020 Rebel Stakes leaderboard, only at SportsLine.

Which horse wins the Rebel Stakes 2020? And which horse is set to surprise? Check out the latest Rebel Stakes odds below, then visit SportsLine to see my picks for the Rebel Stakes.

2020 Rebel Stakes odds

Nadal (5-2)
Excession (30-1)
Basin (3-1)
Silver Prospector (7-2)
No Parole (8-1)
Three Technique (7-2)
Coach Bahe (30-1)
American Theorem (6-1)

Based in Louisville, Jody Demling has been a fixture in horse racing for years. He currently is the publisher of Cardinal Authority and WKU Insider, both sites on the 247Sports network.

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