Rockets vs. Warriors odds, line, spread: 2020 NBA picks, Feb. 20 predictions from model on 35-19 roll

Draymond Green and the Golden State Warriors (12-43) will host James Harden and the Houston Rockets (34-20) on Thursday. Eric Gordon (leg) is considered questionable for the Rockets, who otherwise have a clean injury report. The Warriors still are without star guards Stephen Curry (hand) and Klay Thompson (ACL), but are healthy other than that.

Tip-off for this one is set for 10:30 p.m ET from the Chase Center. Sportsbooks list the Rockets as 10-point home favorites, while the over-under for total points is 232.5 in the latest Rockets vs. Warriors odds. Before making any Warriors vs. Rockets picks or NBA predictions, you’ll want to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated spread and money line picks. It’s already returned over $3,000 in profit on all top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 18 on a blistering 35-19 run on all top-rated spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Rockets vs. Warriors. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds and trends for Warriors vs. Rockets:

  • Rockets vs. Warriors spread: Rockets -10
  • Rockets vs. Warriors over-under: 232.5 points
  • Rockets vs. Warriors money line: Houston -461, Golden State +372
  • HOU: Houston has covered just 33 percent of spreads when playing as a road favorite, the second-worst mark among qualified teams.
  • GSW: The Warriors have a 52 percent cover rate ATS when playing as a home underdog.

Why the Rockets can cover

The model is well aware of what a mismatch this is on paper. The Rockets rank ninth in the NBA in point differential, while Golden State is 28th. Houston is among the league’s best in nearly every category, while Golden State is on the opposite end of the spectrum. Specifically, Golden State’s 24th-ranked defense has no answers for Harden and Russell Westbrook.

On the defensive side of things, Houston has the length and athleticism at the forward position to make life tough for Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins is Golden State’s primary source of offense after D’Angelo Russell, Glenn Robinson III, and Alec Burks were traded, and he’ll have his hands full against Robert Covington and Danuel House. Wiggins has shot just 43 percent from the field and 28 percent from three in two previous meetings with Houston this season, and Golden State will struggle to put points on the board if he’s held in check again on Thursday.

Why the Warriors can cover

Even so, Houston isn’t a lock to cover the Rockets vs. Warriors spread. The model is well aware that the Rockets have struggled with inconsistency when playing away from Houston all season. Their impressive +8.8 point differential when playing at home drops to -0.4 on the road, and they’ve covered just 44.4 percent of road spreads on the year. That number has dropped all the way to 33 percent when playing as a road favorite, which includes an embarrassing 12-point loss while playing as 11.5-point favorites the last time Houston visited the Chase Center.

The Warriors did have Russell in that game, but he was hardly the reason for their victory, shooting just 1-10 from the 3-point line. The real culprit was Houston’s defense, as has often been the case for the Rockets when playing on the road. All five of Golden State’s starters finished in double digits, with four scoring at least 18 points. Houston has allowed an eye-popping 118 points per game when traveling this season, and if they take Golden State lightly on Thursday, they might again fail to cover as a road favorite.

How to make Rockets vs. Warriors picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total. In fact, the model is projecting Harden, Damion Lee, and House all to finish below their scoring averages. It also has generated an against-the-spread pick that says one side hits in 60 percent of simulations.

So who wins Rockets vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread cashes 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Warriors vs. Rockets spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.

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