A pair of Mountain West Conference powers meet when the No. 21 San Diego State Aztecs face the Boise State Broncos in a key matchup between division leaders on Friday. The Aztecs (10-1, 6-1), who lead the West Division, have won three in a row. The Broncos (7-4, 5-2), who are tied for first in the Mountain Division with Utah State and Air Force, have won four straight. San Diego State clinches its division with a win or a Fresno State loss to San Jose State. Boise State needs a win and an Air Force loss to UNLV to take its division.
Kickoff from Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, Calif., is set for noon ET on CBS. The Broncos are 2.5-point favorites in the latest Boise State vs. San Diego State odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 44.5. Before making any San Diego State vs. Boise State picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Week 13 of the 2021 season on a 39-25 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Boise State vs. San Diego State and it just locked in its CFB picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s CFB picks. Here are the FBS college football lines and trends for Boise State vs. San Diego State:
- Boise State vs. San Diego State spread: Boise State -2.5
- Boise State vs. San Diego State over-under: 44.5 points
- Boise State vs. San Diego State money line: Boise State -140, San Diego State +120
- BSU: The Broncos are 8-2-1 against the spread in their last 11 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game
- SDSU: The Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs
Featured Game | San Diego State Aztecs vs. Boise State Broncos
Why Boise State can cover
Junior quarterback Hank Bachmeier leads the Broncos offense. For the season, he has completed 231-of-361 passes (64 percent) for 2,857 yards and 18 touchdowns. He has been picked off six times, but has a rating of 143.6. Bachmeier, who is on the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award watch list, started all five games he appeared in last season. He has thrown for 300 or more yards in two games this year, including a 34-for-47 performance (72.3 percent) for four touchdowns and one interception.
Bachmeier’s top target is senior wide receiver Khalil Shakir, who has a team-high 71 receptions for 1,043 yards (14.7 average) and six touchdowns. Shakir caught seven passes for 116 yards and one touchdown in last Saturday’s 37-0 win over New Mexico. For the season, he has at least four receptions in every game. His best performance was at Colorado State on Oct. 30, when he caught nine passes for 118 yards (13.1 average).
Why San Diego State can cover
Despite that, the Broncos are not a lock to cover the Boise State vs. San Diego State spread. Senior running back Greg Bell leads the offense, carrying 194 times for 907 yards (4.7 average) and seven touchdowns. His best game was in the season opener when he rushed 21 times for 161 yards (7.7 average) and one touchdown in a 28-10 victory over New Mexico State.
Senior quarterback Lucas Johnson has played in all 11 games this season, starting seven times. He has completed 105-of-167 passes (62.9 percent) for 993 yards and nine touchdowns against four interceptions for a 125.8 pass efficiency rating, while carrying 47 times for 164 yards (3.5 average), with a long run of 54 yards. Over his last three games, he is 51-of-74 passing (68.9 percent) for 467 yards and four touchdowns with one interception. Johnson began his career at Georgia Tech, where he played in 16 games including two starts. San Diego State has a weapon in punter/kicker Matt Araiza, who is a finalist for the Ray Guy Award.
How to make Boise State vs. San Diego State picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting 42 combined points. It also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only get the model’s SDSU vs. Boise State pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Boise State vs. San Diego State? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Boise State vs. San Diego State spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished the past five-plus years up nearly $3,700 on its FBS college football picks, and find out.
