Tampa Bay Derby odds, predictions 2020: Expert who nailed Pegasus World Cup reveals picks

Two of the top contenders for the Kentucky Derby collide on Saturday when 12 horses enter the starting gate for the 2020 Tampa Bay Derby. The prep race shapes up on paper to be a matchup between Sam F. Davis Stakes winner Sole Volante and Mucho Macho Man victor Chance It. Sole Volante, trained by Patrick Biancone, is the 2-1 favorite in the current 2020 Tampa Bay Derby odds, with Chance It at 5-2.

Only one other horse, Market Analysis (8-1), is shorter than 10-1 among the 2020 Tampa Bay Derby contenders. The winner will receive 50 qualifying points for the 2020 Kentucky Derby. Post time for the 1 1/16-mile race is 5:32 p.m. ET. Before you make any 2020 Tampa Bay Derby picks, you’ll want to see how racing insider and accomplished horseplayer Bob Weir has handicapped the race. 

Based in Saratoga Springs, N.Y., Weir has been handicapping and following horse racing since reading Andy Beyer’s landmark handicapping book “Picking Winners” in the late 1980s. Weir is highly invested in the Beyer Speed Figure, a number assigned to every race run by a horse that measures how fast the horse ran. He uses the figure as the backbone of his handicapping. In fact, thanks to his proficiency with speed figures and top-tier handicapping, he landed one of just eight spots on Beyer’s figure-making team in 2017, a position he holds to this day. 

Weir’s methodology has produced multiple five-figure days. In 2014, he hit a $60,000 Pick 6 at Del Mar on a $144 ticket. The following year, he nailed a $31,000 Pick 6 at Gulfstream Park on a $36 investment. In 2016 and 2017, Weir qualified for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas. 

This year, his first for SportsLine, Weir has been on fire. In January, he crushed the Pegasus World Cup, giving out an $8 exacta that paid $312.80, and a $1 trifecta that paid $444.80. In last month’s Sam F. Davis Stakes, he nailed the superfecta, which paid $150.75. Anyone who has followed his lead is way up. 

Now, Weir has handicapped the 2020 Tampa Bay Derby, made his picks and formulated his bets. He’s only sharing them here.

2020 Tampa Bay Derby predictions

Weir is largely fading Market Analysis, even though the Todd Pletcher trainee is the third-biggest favorite at 8-1. In fact, the majority of his wagers will not have Market Analysis in either of the top two spots.

A $250,000 yearling purchase, Market Analysis recently made his debut, winning a seven-furlong maiden race at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 25. But he is by far the least experienced horse in the field and has never been around two turns. In addition, the 2020 Tampa Bay Derby field features several early speed horses, which could comprise Market Analysis’ front-running style. 

Another shocker: Weir is high on Texas Swing, even though the colt is a long shot at 12-1. Trained by Pletcher, Texas Swing is coming off a maiden win on Feb. 8 in which he earned a respectable 86 Beyer Speed Figure. 

A son of Curlin, Texas Swing should thrive stretching out to the longer distance of the Tampa Bay Derby 2020. In addition, with his maiden win coming at Tampa Bay Downs, he already has shown an affinity for the surface, which has a reputation of being a quirky track.

How to make 2020 Tampa Bay Derby picks

Weir is especially high on a double-digit longshot who’s one of the most dangerous horses in the entire field. He’s including this horse in his exactas, trifectas and superfectas, and so should you. He’s sharing which horse to back only at SportsLine. 

So what double-digit longshot is Weir playing in the Tampa Bay Derby? And what other horses do you need to include in your exactas, trifectas and superfectas? Check out the latest Tampa Bay Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Weir’s picks for the Tampa Bay Derby.

2020 Tampa Bay Derby odds

Sole Volante (2-1)
Chance It (5-2)
Market Analysis (8-1)
Spa City (10-1)
Texas Swing (12-1)
Relentless Dancer (12-1)
Letmeno (12-1)
King Guillermo (15-1)
Unrighteous (20-1)
Bye Bye Melvin (20-1)
Mo Mosa (30-1)
Tons of Gold (30-1)

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