Texas State vs. UT Arlington odds, line: College basketball picks, Feb. 28 predictions by model on 66-40 run

The Texas State Bobcats look to keep their slim Sun Belt regular-season championship hopes alive when they take on the host Texas-Arlington Mavericks on Friday in Arlington, Texas. The Bobcats (19-10), who are second in the conference at 12-6, are 5-7 on the road, while the Mavericks (13-16), who are seventh in the Sun Belt at 9-9, are 8-6 at home. 

Tip-off from College Park Center is set for 9 p.m. ET. UT Arlington leads the all-time series 40-33. The Mavericks are one-point favorites in the latest UT Arlington vs. Texas State odds, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 130.5. Before making any Texas State vs. UT Arlington picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has crushed its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread the past three years, returning $2,770 to $100 players. It also entered Week 17 of the 2019-20 season on a 66-40 run on all top-rated college basketball picks. Anybody who followed it has seen some huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in on Texas State vs. UT Arlington. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the college basketball lines and trends for UT Arlington vs. Texas State.

  • Texas State vs. UT Arlington spread: UT Arlington -1
  • Texas State vs. UT Arlington over-under: 130.5 points
  • Texas State vs. UT Arlington money line: Texas State -104, UT Arlington -116
  • TS: Is 27th in the nation in free-throw percentage at 76.2
  • UTA: Is averaging 70.1 points per game

Why UT Arlington can cover

After starting the season 6-12, the Mavericks have been on a roll, going 7-4 since Jan. 16. UT Arlington has also won five straight in the series and 17 of the past 20. The Mavericks are looking for their sixth consecutive winning season and are hoping for Sun Belt Tournament success to nab an NCAA Tournament bid for the first time since 2007-08.

Sophomore guard David Azore leads the Mavericks in points (14.0), assists (3.7) and steals (1.0), and is averaging 4.8 rebounds per game. As a freshman, Azore had two games of 11-plus defensive rebounds and on Dec. 21 of this season, he grabbed 12 defensive rebounds at Georgia Southern, which are tied for the 10th-most in program history.

Why Texas State can cover

Even so, the Mavericks aren’t a lock to cover the Texas State vs. UT Arlington spread. That’s because the Bobcats have been red hot, winning four straight and seven of eight. Texas State has clinched its second straight winning season and third in four years. It is also looking to lock down the Mavericks. The Bobcats have held nine opponents to 36 percent on field goals or worse this season and are 8-1 in those games.

Senior guard Nijal Pearson is the program’s all-time leading scorer and leads the Sun Belt Conference with 19.5 points per game. His 2,068 career points rank seventh in Sun Belt history and his 547 points this season rank No. 35 in the country. Pearson also leads the Bobcats with 1.3 steals per game. He scored 26 points in the first meeting against the Mavericks this year and scored 27 in a Feb. 15 win over Arkansas-Little Rock.

How to make Texas State vs. UT Arlington picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total. In fact, it says Texas State’s Mason Harrell will score nearly one more point than he’s averaged over the past six games, while UT Arlington’s Brian Warren will better his season average by nearly one point. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations. 

So who wins Texas State vs. UT Arlington? And which side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the UT Arlington vs. Texas State spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up more than $2,700 on its top-rated college basketball picks the last three years, and find out.

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