Today’s Top Picks: Three college basketball best bets for Wednesday show it’s a day for underdogs

We’ve reached the time of year when I start complaining that the college basketball season is too long. It’s not a real complaint. Sure, maybe the season has a few more nonconference games than it needs, and I suppose if I wanted to, I could get on a soapbox and yell something about how these players are supposed to be students, blah blah blah.

But the truth is I only feel this way because I want the postseason to start. I enjoy the regular season (or betting on it, anyway), but the real fun begins when all those brackets start popping up.

I want it to be time for the brackets.

All odds via William Hill.

1. No. 13 Auburn at Georgia: Georgia +3.5

I toyed with the idea of taking Georgia on the moneyline here, and if that tickles your fancy, know that I don’t hate it. I think taking the points with Georgia is the smarter play, though. The Bulldogs have not been nearly as good as a team with the potential No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft should be this year, but there’s a lot of that going around (hello, North Carolina). I like them here, however, because Auburn isn’t as good as its record suggests, either. I have no idea how KenPom’s Luck metric works, but Auburn ranks second among 353 teams this season. Furthermore, the Tigers are 2-5 ATS on the road this season, including a mark of 0-4 ATS when favored on the road. Luck runs out at some point, doesn’t it?

The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has crushed its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread the past three years, returning $2,770 to $100 players. See which side of Auburn-Georgia cashes in 58% of simulations only at SportsLine.

2. Michigan at Rutgers: Michigan +125

As for a moneyline play I do like, give me the Wolverines. Michigan got off to a hot start to the season, winning eight of their first nine, and then hit a rough spot. During a five-week stretch from mid-December to late January, Michigan went 3-7, and the world seemingly moved on. Well, they’ve been much better as of late. Michigan has won five of its last six, including a win over this Rutgers team at Madison Square Garden to start the month. Rutgers has been terrific at home this season, going 17-0 straight up as well as 11-4-1 ATS, but Michigan can win this game often enough to make them worth your while at this price.

WBC titleholder Deontay Wilder and lineal champion Tyson Fury, who fought to a disputed split draw in 2018, fight again on Saturday, and you’ll want to see what veteran analyst Peter Kahn is picking after he nailed a 22-to-1 longshot in a Wilder fight last year. Get his Wilder-Fury best bets over at SportsLine.

3. Indiana at Minnesota: Minnesota -5.5

There’s not a whole lot of heavy-lifting with my brain about this pick, as it’s quite simple. On the season, Minnesota is 9-4 ATS at home, including 8-3 as a favorite at home. Indiana, meanwhile, is 1-6 ATS on the road, and 0-5 as an underdog on the road (2-5 as a ‘dog overall). Indiana is also a sad 4-10 ATS in Big Ten play. Minnesota has lost five of its last seven, and it’s only 12-12 overall, but don’t let that record fool you. If the Gophers were in just about any other conference, they’d be a tournament team. The problem is they’re in the Big Ten, and the Big Ten is a damn minefield this season. A minefield that Indiana keeps getting blown to bits in.

Football expert R.J. White was mere minutes away from starting the XFL season 8-0 on his ATS picks, but even at 7-1 he’s been cashing for SportsLine members on the new league. See all four of his Week 3 picks only at SportsLine.

Source link