UFC 258 fight card, odds: Breaking down every bout from the PPV opener to the main event from Las Vegas

After two failed attempts to get Gilbert Burns in the Octagon with welterweight champion Kamaru Usman, the two appear finally set to clash this Saturday in Las Vegas in the main event of UFC 258. The teammates turned rivals will face off with the belt on the line and with Burns trying to end the champ’s perfect record in the UFC.

Of course, the main event showdown between Burns and Usman is not the only fight on the card, and all 12 fights scheduled to take place inside the UFC APEX are meaningful for their division, from young fighters looking to make their mark, to some of the most experienced fighters on the roster to the two men vying for championship gold. Let’s take a look at every fight on the main card, which streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET.

Julian Marquez -170 vs. Maki Pitolo +145, middleweights: After earning his shot in the UFC with a 97-second TKO on Dana White’s Contender Series in July 2019, Pitolo (13-7) has had limited success in the Octagon, going just 1-3 in the promotion. Pitolo is currently on a two-fight losing skid that saw a submission to Darren Stewart and a decision loss to Impa Kasanganay just 21 days apart this past August. Pitolo has seven knockouts in his 13 career victories, with only three wins by decision. He has also been submitted three times and suffered two knockouts. That could be bad news for Pitolo against Marquez (7-2), who has proven to be a solid finisher in his career. Marquez followed the same path to the UFC as Pitolo, scoring an impressive knockout on Dana White’s Contender Series to earn his shot in the Octagon. After beating Stewart with a second-round submission, Marquez lost to Alessio Di Chirico by split decision. Those fights came between 2017 and 2018 before he was sidelined first by injury and then by a failed weight cut for his planned return last November.

Bobby Green -270 vs. Jim Miller +220, lightweights: Miller (32-15) and Green (27-11-1) are two longtime staples of the UFC lightweight division. Miller will take the lead in all-time fights in the UFC on Saturday, passing Donald Cerrone with a record 37 trips to the Octagon. At 37, Miller has fought many of the best fighters in UFC history and has been one of the best gatekeepers in the 155-pound division. This past June, Miller scored submission No. 18 in his career by armbarring Roosevelt Roberts, but lost in his bext outing by decision against Vinc Pichel. After an impressive Strikeforce career, Green came to the UFC in 2013. He has since gone 8-6-1 in the Octagon. In his most recent fight, Green lost a decision to Thiago Moises, snapping a three-fight winning streak, his best run since 2014.

Kelvin Gastelum -220 vs. Ian Heinisch +180, middleweights: After rising to the top end of the UFC’s middleweight division, Gastelum (15-6) has hit a rough patch, losing three straight fights, starting with Israel Adesanya for the interim title that was one of the best fights of 2019. A split decision loss to Darren Till and a heel hook submission defeat against Jack Hermansson followed. Heinisch (14-3) recently snapped his own two-fight losing skid, knocking out Gerald Meerschaert in June after suffering decision losses to Omari Akhmedov and Derek Brunson. Neither man has suffered a knockout loss in their career, but have scored a combined 11 knockouts in their 29 career victories.

Alexa Grasso -135 vs. Maycee Barber +115, women’s flyweights: After tearing through the first eight fights of her pro career with seven stoppage wins, Barber (8-1) suffered her first career loss in January 2020 when decisioned by Roxanne Modafferi. Barber’s knee was injured in the fight with Modafferi, putting her on the sideline for a year to recover before being set up to face Grasso (12-3). Over Grasso’s past seven fights, she has alternated wins and losses, most recently picking up a decision victory over Ji Yeon Kim in August. While Barber has seven finishes in her career, Grasso has just four in nearly twice as many fights, with eight of her wins coming via decision. The loser of this fight runs the risk of falling out of the official UFC rankings at flyweight.

Kamaru Usman (c) -280 vs. Gilbert Burns +230, welterweight championship: Since joining the UFC, Usman (17-1) has been one of the most dominant fighters on the roster, with a perfect 12-0 record in the Octagon. Usman won the welterweight title with a one-sided beating of Tyron Woodley in March 2019. Arguably the biggest fight of his career was up next, as Usman faced hated rival Colby Covington, winning the thrilling fight by TKO in the fifth round. Usman was then set to face Burns in the main event of UFC 251 in July 2020, but Burns tested positive for COVID-19, leading Jorge Masvidal to step in on short notice. Usman easily handled Masvidal through a wrestling-based attack that neutralized the feared striker.

Burns (19-3) was one of the breakout stars of the early COVID-19 era of the UFC, scoring lopsided wins over Demian Maia and Tyron Woodley in 2020 to earn a title shot. Those wins ran his current winning streak to six, four of which came in a return to the welterweight division. Burns has shown a balanced approach to his victories, winning six by knockout, eight by submission and five by decision. He and Usman are teammates, but Usman left the camp in preparation for their upcoming fight.

Who will win Usman vs. Burns and every fight at UFC 258? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight, all from the incomparable expert who’s up more than $22,000 on MMA picks in the past two years.

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