UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns odds, predictions: MMA insider makes surprising fight card picks

Welterweight champion Kamaru Usman puts his belt on the line on Saturday against rising contender Gilbert Burns in the main event of UFC 258 in Las Vegas. The main UFC 258 fight card is set for 10 p.m. ET and will be topped by Usman making his third title defense against the second-ranked Burns, who emerged as a budding star in 2020. Usman fought just once last year and notched a lopsided decision over fan favorite Jorge Masvidal in July. Burns has won six straight and dominated both of his 2020 fights, including a dominant five-round decision against former champion Tyron Woodley.

Usman is a -270 favorite (risk $270 to win $100), while Burns is a +230 underdog in the latest Usman vs. Burns odds from William Hill Sportsbook. In the co-main event, the latest UFC 258 odds list Alexa Grasso at -140 as she takes on Maycee Barber (+120) in a meeting of women’s flyweight contenders. Before making any UFC 258 picks, make sure you see what SportsLine MMA analyst Kyle Marley has to say

Marley won the first-ever “ToutMaster” UFC betting contest sponsored by MMAOddsBreaker and appears regularly on multiple MMA betting and daily Fantasy shows. He watches every single fight for every professional MMA card and does extensive research before each event.

Over the past 24 months, $100 bettors who have followed Marley’s picks are up more than $22,000. Already in 2021, the accomplished MMA analyst has built on his memorable 2020 run and has now connected on 26 of his last UFC 36 main-event selections, a stretch that includes a streak of five straight underdogs.

Just last week at UFC Fight Night, Marley told SportsLine members to back prospect Alexander Volkov (-180) against respected veteran Alistair Overeem in a matchup of top-10 heavyweights in the main event. He called for an early stoppage from Volkov and was proven correct when the hard-punching Russian rocked Overeem in the first round and finished him in the second. Anyone who has consistently followed Marley is way up.

Now, Marley has examined every fight on the UFC 258 card and locked in his picks. You can only see his coveted UFC 258 predictions here.

UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns preview

Marley knows the main event provides an intriguing matchup between fighters who have similar skill sets. Usman and Burns are both explosive wrestlers and grapplers who are known for nonstop pressure that negates their opponent’s offensive attack.

Usman (17-1) has shown he is one of the most dominant UFC champions of this generation, although he is far from the most popular. This is in large part because the soft-spoken fighter is hesitant to engage in callouts or trash talking and is often visibly uncomfortable when he tries. He’s often been panned by UFC fans for verbal blunders such as his infamous quote about fighting at 30 percent after a win over Emil Meek in January 2018.

However, even his most ardent critics can’t deny Usman has proven himself in the cage. He seized the title with a masterful performance against Woodley and followed it up with a fifth-round stoppage of bad boy Colby Covington. The Nigeria-born Usman, 33, also had little trouble dismantling Masvidal, who was the Fighter of the Year in 2019 on the strength of three spectacular knockout finishes.

But Usman could be in for his toughest challenge yet against Burns, who is arguably a stronger and more explosive version of the champion himself. The rugged 34-year-old Brazilian made his UFC debut in 2014 and started his stint with the promotion with a 6-3 record while mostly flying under the radar of widespread recognition.

However, Burns saw his stock soar last year, starting with a first-round knockout of perennial contender Demian Maia last March. He followed it up with an impressive showing against the fading Woodley in a fight that looked similar to Usman’s bout against the former champ. You can only see who to back here.

UFC 258 predictions

We’ll share one of Marley’s UFC 258 predictions here: He is backing Ian Heinisch (+185) to pull the upset of Kelvin Gastelum (-215) in a matchup of middleweight contenders.

Although still just 29, Gastelum (15-6-1) is an eight-year UFC veteran who was once one of the most feared strikers in the division. The Californian is known for coming out on the short end of a memorable five-round war against Israel Adesanya for the interim middleweight title in April 2019.

Gastelum hasn’t won since, and many MMA observers have wondered whether he’ll ever be the same after the damage he took against Adesanya. He has lost three straight fights, including a lifeless decision to Darren Till and a first-round submission defeat to Jack Hermansson.

Heinisch (14-3) emerged as a prospect with wins in his first two UFC appearances before suffering back-to-back losses. But the 32-year-old Denver native rebounded with a first-round knockout of veteran Gerald Meerschaert in June.

“I think this will be a split-decision-type fight and I have to lean with the underdog every time in that situation because that is where the value is on the betting line,” Marley told SportsLine.

How to make UFC 258 picks

Marley also has strong picks for Burns vs. Usman and every other bout on the UFC 258 fight card. He’s also backing one fighter who “is the faster fighter and better boxer” to get a decision victory. Those selections are only available at SportsLine.

Who wins Usman vs. Burns? And how exactly does each fight end? Check out the latest UFC 258 odds below and then visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight, all from the incomparable expert who’s up more than $22,000 on MMA in the past two years, and find out.

UFC 258 odds

Kamaru Usman (-270) vs. Gilbert Burns (+230)
Alexa Grasso (-140) vs Maycee Barber (+120)
Kelvin Gastelum (-215) vs. Ian Heinisch (+185)
Jimmie Rivera (-135) vs. Pedro Munhoz (+115)
Julian Marquez (-165) vs. Maki Pitolo (+145)
Bobby Green (-270) vs. Jim Miller (+230)
Rodolfo Vieira (-410) vs. Anthony Hernandez (+330)
Belal Muhammad (-400) vs. Dhiego Lima (+320)
Mallory Martin (-155) vs. Polyana Viana (+135)
Ricky Simon (-260) vs. Brian Kelleher (+220)
Gabriel Green (-130) vs. Philip Rowe (+110)
Miranda Maverick (-145) vs. Gillian Robertson (+125) 

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