Why No. 14 West Virginia may upset No. 7 Texas Tech again, plus other best bets for Tuesday


Happy Tuesday, everyone. I have some breaking news for you. It turns out that the NFL has looked at the way the NBA approaches its offseasons, filling it with nonstop drama that dominates news cycles, and said, “oh man I gotta get me some of that.”

There’s probably still some confetti on the field at Raymond James Stadium from Sunday night, but the NFL has more quarterback intrigue! Oh, sure, you’re heard about Deshaun Watson and Carson Wentz wanting to be traded. You know that the Jets are trying to figure out what they should do with Sam Darnold and the No. 2 pick. The Bears are reading a book and learning that quarterbacks are an integral part of the sport, and, once they get over the shock, they’ll probably trade for Teddy Bridgewater.

But what if they could trade for Russell Wilson instead? Our Jason La Canfora dropped the news late Sunday that teams are sniffing around the Seahawks to learn of Wilson’s possible availability. The Notorious JLC also mentioned that Wilson is getting a bit “frustrated” over the Seattle’s inability to protect him. On Tuesday, during an appearance on “The Dan Patrick Show,” Wilson said he wants to be more involved in the team’s decision-making process.

So maybe the relationship isn’t as great as it looks from the outside. Considering the price Deshaun Watson is commanding in the trade market, what do you think Russell Wilson would command? Sure, he’s older than Watson, but he’s also been to two Super Bowls, winning one.

This league!! Oh, and these stories. Read them.

Now, let’s go make some money.

All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook


🔥 The Hot Ticket

No. 14 West Virginia at No. 7 Texas Tech, 9 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: West Virginia +6 (-110)
: West Virginia won the first matchup between these two a couple of weeks ago. You might remember that because it was featured in this newsletter. We took West Virginia +2.5, so the Mountaineers weren’t the only winners that night. It should be pointed out that the bucket was the size of an ocean for the Mountaineers that night. They made 12 of their 19 three-point attempts. They shot better from three (63.2%) than from the free-throw line that night (59.3%).

Check out more experts picks on The Early Edge podcast — download and subscribe on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or listen below:

They aren’t likely to do that again, but I think that’ll have a more considerable impact on the total than anything. The teams combined for 175 points that night, finishing 39 points over the total of 136. But as far as the matchup is concerned, all the reasons I liked West Virginia in the first meeting remain. While they’re not a team that’s going to shoot 60% from three every night, they are one of the better three-point shooting teams in the country, and if this Texas Tech defense has had a weakness all season long, it’s defending the perimeter.

The Red Raiders defense ranks 12th in the nation in adjusted efficiency, yet 223rd in three-point shooting percentage against at 34.5%. They do this by not letting you get any easy buckets, which is fine with West Virginia. I’m not sure West Virginia gets another win tonight, but this will be a close game throughout.

Key Trend: Texas Tech is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games as a favorite.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: The SportsLine projection model has a pick for the clash between West Virginia and Texas Tech. Check out the results


💰 The Picks

🏀 NBA

Knicks at Heat, 7:30 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass
The Pick: Knicks +6 (-105) — 
Raise your hand if you thought the Knicks would not only have a better record than the Heat at this point of the season, but that the numbers would suggest it isn’t a fluke. Exactly. Now, obviously, the Heat have been dealing with injuries this season, and it has made it difficult for them to find their groove coming off an NBA Finals appearance. Well, I would bet on the Heat finishing the season with a better record than the Knicks, but I’m not convinced they’re at that point yet.

You’ll be shocked to learn that a team led by Tom Thibodeau ranks first in the league in fewest points allowed per game and sixth in defensive efficiency. That defense will be what keeps the Knicks in this game. I don’t hate a money line play if you’re feeling frisky, but I like the Knicks with the points a lot.

Key Trend: Miami is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine home games.

⚽ Premier League

The Pick: Liverpool to finish outside top four (+275) — We’re taking a bit of a punt here. One that would have seemed insane before the Premier League season began, but doesn’t seem nearly as crazy now. I see value in this number. Liverpool is a mess. It’s been dealing with injuries all year long that have already been eliminated from defending its Premier League crown (not mathematically, but realistically).

Making life more difficult, some of the teams it will be competing with for a top-four spot (Leicester City, West Ham, Everton, Aston Villa) get to return to a life of one match per week, allowing them to rest. Liverpool isn’t afforded that pleasure, as it has the Champions League to deal with at the end of the month. That means a team that is already tired and has already lost a ton of key players to injury won’t be getting much rest any time soon. Heck, even if Liverpool loses to RB Leipzig in the Champions League Round of 16, the way it’s played lately isn’t promising.

A couple of teams behind it (Everton, Tottenham and Aston Villa) all have games in hand on it. Theoretically, if Everton managed only four points in the two matches it hasn’t played yet, it would already be ahead of Liverpool. If Aston Villa won both the matches it has yet to play, it would be ahead of Liverpool at the moment too. Now, to be clear, I don’t think Liverpool will finish outside the top four, and if it does, I will bet on Chelsea being the team to take its place before either Everton or Aston Villa. But the point is it’s a lot more possible than you think, and it’s more likely than these odds suggest, so let’s take a shot.

Key Trend: Liverpool has won only 3 of its last 11 matches across all competitions.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Uncanny golf handicapper Rick Gehman gives his best bets for this week’s PGA Tour event at Pebble Beach, including two massive long shots to win.


💸 The DFS Rundown

Star Plays

PG: Damian Lillard, Blazers
SG: Donovan Mitchell, Jazz
SF: Jimmy Butler, Heat
PF: Bam Adebayo, Heat
C: Nikola Vucevic, Magic

Value Plays

PG: Kemba Walker, Celtics
SG: Jordan Clarkson, Jazz
SF: Joe Ingles, Jazz
PF: Blake Griffin, Pistons
C: DeMarcus Cousins, Rockets

Full lineup advice

Get winning NBA DFS picks from SportsLine pros Mike McClure and Jacob Gibbs. McClure has won almost $2 million in daily Fantasy, while Gibbs crushed the NBA last season, cashing around 65 percent of the time in cash games and nearly 45 percent of the time in tournaments. See their DraftKings advice and FanDuel lineups here


 🏀 NBA Player Props


Getty Images
  • Steven Adams Over 1.5 assists (-160)
  • Nikola Vucevic Over 39.5 Points, Assists & Rebounds (-125)
  • Joe Ingles Over 11.5 points (-105)
  • Donovan Mitchell Over 31.5 Points & Assists (-115)





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