Why to change course and actually bet on the Bucks tonight, plus other picks for Wednesday

Hello, and Happy Wednesday, dear reader. If you read yesterday’s newsletter and followed my advice, I know you had a very happy Tuesday. While I always fear bringing this up here because it might jinx today’s picks, yesterday’s newsletter went 6-0. We’ll have to wait until May to learn if our Liverpool future pays off.

Still, it was a good day, and the plan today is to stack another good day on top of it. My theory is that if we never lose, then we’ll all get rich, and if we all get rich, then we can all pool our money together and buy Amazon. Not the company, the actual Amazon. I’m not sure what we’ll do with it, but I bet we can make a lot more money doing something with it.

I’m willing to listen to any ideas if you have them; just know that if you do submit an idea to me, I don’t owe you anything if I use it. Since I wrote that, it’s now a valid legal argument. My friend who went to law school for a couple of months says so.

Anyway, before we get to tonight’s picks, let’s catch up on today’s reading.

Now, let’s go get ourselves a jungle.

All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Bucks at Suns, 10 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Bucks -4 (-110)
: As best as I can tell, there are four elite level teams in the NBA right now. The Bucks are one of them. The Suns are not. The Suns are more of a tier two team at the moment, and while that’s good, the gap between the top four teams (Milwaukee, Utah and the Los Angeleseseseses) and everybody else is sizable. And that’s why I’m on the Bucks tonight.

While I’ve made it a policy to go against Milwaukee when it is favored against other elite teams, I’m not sure I’d do that at the moment. The Bucks are playing phenomenal basketball right now. Not only have they covered in five straight entering tonight’s game, but they’ve covered by an average of 12.4 points per game.

Tonight they face a Suns team that has won and covered six of seven, but has done so against a somewhat soft stretch of its schedule. Tonight they get a Milwaukee team that is peaking, and the Suns could be without Chris Paul, who did not play on Monday against Cleveland due to a hamstring injury. I do expect Paul to play, and I like this line either way.

Key Trend: Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last five games, covering by an average of 12.4 points per game.

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine’s projection model generated selections for Wednesday’s matchup between Milwaukee and Phoenix. Check out what it has to say for this game here.

💰 The Picks


Pacers at Nets, 8 p.m. | TV: NBA League Pass
The Pick: Pacers Over 117.5 (-105) — 
The Nets are a team that will be much better come playoff time than they are right now. That’s natural, considering they entered the year with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant playing together for the first time. Then you throw James Harden in the mix, and as talented a team as they are, you still need time to figure things out. And then Kevin Durant is taken away due to COVID protocols, complicating matters even further. 

Or maybe it’s just the refs’ fault?

Anyway, while I expect the Nets to improve as the year goes along, they will not improve if they don’t start defending. The Nets are starting to mirror their new coach Steve Nash in which they’re unstoppable on offense, but hey, how about I just take this defensive possession off? Brooklyn ranks 27th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. It’s now worse than the Minnesota team we were fading to start the year and making a lot of money while doing so. Tonight we’re taking that same approach with an Indiana team that has proven to be more than capable offensively.

Key Trend: The Nets have allowed at least 120 points in 11 of their last 12 games.

🏀 College Basketball

Northern Iowa at Drake, 7 p.m. | TV: CBS Sports Network
The Pick: Northern Iowa +9.5 (-110) — 
Here’s the thing about Drake: the Bulldogs are 18-1 on the season, yet they’re only ranked 63rd by KenPom. They reside in the “Others receiving votes” portion of the AP Poll, and they’re still behind eight other teams there, too. In other words, this isn’t a team that has played as well as its record suggests, and reality is starting to catch up.

Drake also began the season 13-0 ATS (two of its early games did not have lines posted), but it has now failed to cover in three of its last four. Regression is catching up, and it will continue to do so tonight against a Northern Iowa team that has played a much more difficult schedule than Drake has. I expect the Bulldogs to win, but Northern Iowa’s shooting will keep it within this number come the final buzzer.

Key Trend: Drake is 1-3 ATS in its last four games.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Vegas bookmaker Micah Roberts, who called the winners of the Daytona 500, Pennzoil 400 and Toyota 500 last year, is revealing his picks and leaderboard for one of the biggest sporting events in the country, Sunday’s Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway.

💸 The DFS Rundown


Star Plays

PG: Luka Doncic, Mavs
SG: James Harden, Nets
SF: Kawhi Leonard, Clippers
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
C: Andre Drummond, Cavs

Value Plays

PG: Hamidou Diallo, Thunder
SG: Kevin Huerter, Hawks
SF: Denzel Valentine, Bulls
PF: Patrick Williams, Bulls
C: Al Horford, Thunder

Full lineup advice

Get winning NBA DFS picks from SportsLine pros Mike McClure and Jacob Gibbs. McClure has won almost $2 million in daily Fantasy, while Gibbs crushed the NBA last season, cashing around 65 percent of the time in cash games and nearly 45 percent of the time in tournaments. See their DraftKings advice and FanDuel lineups here

 ⛳ AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Top 20 Props

We’re betting on each of these golfers to finish in the top 20.

  • Brian Harman +200
  • Mark Hubbard +300
  • Adam Long +333
  • Charley Hoffman +400
  • Bo Hoag +400
  • Tom Hoge +450
  • Chase Seiffert +600
  • Tyler Duncan +650
  • Vaughn Taylor +650
  • Brice Garnett +700

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