Why to take the over on Lakers-Nuggets in Game 3


You know, there is absolutely nothing better on a Tuesday than checking your fantasy league standings when your teams went undefeated over the weekend. Well, there is one thing better: the Tuesdays after an undefeated weekend when you go to your team page and don’t see carnage everywhere you look.

I mean, nobody escaped over the weekend. If you have a fantasy team, the odds are you lost at least one player for a while, if not two or more. Injuries have always been a part of football, but I’ve played in fantasy leagues for 20 years now, and I don’t ever remember a weekend like the one we just went through.

So it’s a good thing CBSSports.com has so many fantasy experts to help you figure out how to save your team going forward. Remember, you’re not the only team who suffered injuries so far. Every other team in your league has, so what matters now is not what has happened, but what you intend to do to fix it. Let the other owners in your league feel defeated. What you should do is take this as an opportunity to gain an advantage on them.

Now that you’re done putting in your waiver claims catch up on the day’s news.

Done reading those stories? Good, let’s go make some money.

All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook


🏆 The Hot Ticket

🏀 Nuggets vs. Lakers, 9 p.m. | TV: TNT
The Pick: Over 214 (-110)
: There’s been a trend in the third game of NBA Playoffs series for this game that you can follow if you’d like, but it’s not my favorite play for this game. The trend is that, in a series where one team has a 2-0 advantage, the team that is down 0-2 is only 4-10 ATS when it’s an underdog in Game 3 since 2017. That includes an 0-2 mark this season. So, if you want to fade the Nuggets in that same situation tonight, it’s not an awful move.

The better decision would be to attack the total. The Lakers and Nuggets have played six times, including three times in the bubble, and the over is 4-2. More important than the results are the scores they’ve posted. The average game between these two has had an average of 227 points, which is 13 points higher than the total for tonight’s game. While Game 2 only saw 208 points scored, we also saw the Big Four in this series all struggle shooting. They combined to shoot 46.3% (38/82) from the field and 32% (8/25) from three. All four are likely to rebound a bit tonight, which will lead to a higher-scoring affair.

Key Trend: The over is 21-8-2 in the last 31 games between these teams

Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: The SportsLine Advanced Computer Model has simulated tonight’s game 10,000 times, which is 9,999 more times than I did, and it has a lean on the game as well.


💰The Picks

 
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⚾ MLB | Today’s full schedule

Yankees at Blue Jays, 6:37 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Yankees Over 5.5 (-126) — 
Toronto starter Tanner Roark was tossing and turning in bed last night knowing he had to face the Yankees on Tuesday. In 118 plate appearances against Roark, current Yankees hitters are slugging .629 with a wOBA of .398. Roark has allowed 12 dingers in those 118 PA (a rate of 10.2%), with Giancarlo Stanton responsible for four of them. D.J. LeMahieu, who is vying for a batting title, is right behind Stanton with three. With Gerrit Cole starting for the Yankees you can’t get a good price on them to win, but the offense will score plenty of runs tonight regardless.

Key Trend: The Yankees have scored 63 runs (9.0 per game) against the Blue Jays this season.

Cubs at Pirates, 7:05 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Pirates 1st 5 innings (+130) — 
We’re taking a flyer on the Pirates here because the Cubs caught a lot of people off guard Monday when they announced Jose Quintana would be starting Tuesday night’s game. Quintana has spent most of the 2020 season dealing with injuries and has thrown only six innings in two appearances out of the bullpen. Tonight he’s not likely to go more than three innings, and will likely be rusty and just trying to get work in hopes of being available in the postseason. So we’re going to bet on the Pirates in the first five innings, thinking they can get to Quintana early, and we won’t have to rely on the Pittsburgh bullpen late.

Key Trend: Jose Quintana has allowed 12 runs in his last two starts (7.1 IP) against the Pirates.

Marlins at Braves, 7:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Braves (-158) — 
As division rivals, these teams see a lot of one another, and the Braves are always happy to see Miami starter, Jose Urena. In 17 appearances (14 starts) against the Braves, Urena is 2-8 with a 6.55 ERA over 67.1 IP. Current Braves hitters have slugged .549 against Urena with a wOBA of .394. What I’m trying to tell you is that the Braves rake against Urena, and — SPOILER ALERT — you will be seeing the Braves again in this newsletter.

Key Trend: Atlanta is 24-7 in its last 31 at home against the Marlins.

Athletics at Dodgers, 9:40 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Under 9 (-110) — 
I tend to look at the under in any game between good teams. The reasoning is pretty simple: the best way to be a good team is to limit the number of runs you allow. Well, both Oakland and Los Angeles have done a terrific job of that this season! Only the Indians and Twins have allowed fewer runs than these two teams in 2020. What will also help keep scores low tonight is that neither team is familiar with the other team’s starter. Current Athletics have only had four plate appearances against Dodgers starter Dustin May, and Dodgers hitters have only five against Oakland’s Frankie Montas. Toss in a couple of high groundball rates for both with a couple of excellent bullpens, and we aren’t going to see many guys crossing home plate.

Key Trend: The under is 14-8 in Dustin May’s 22 career starts with the Dodgers.

SportsLine lock of the day: The SportsLine Projection Model is heavily favoring one side of Angels vs. Padres at 9:10 p.m. ET. SportsLine subscribers can get picks for that game, and for every other MLB game today, here.


💸 The DFS Rundown 

 
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Stud Pitcher

Blake Snell ($9.2K FD/$9.5K DK) — Snell has been fantastic as of late, and he’s going against an offense he should find more success against. He’s averaging 33 points per start on FanDuel in his last four, and tonight he’s facing a Mets offense that has been more dangerous against righties than lefties. Let everyone else roster Gerrit Cole while you save some cash on Snell.

Value Hitter

Renato Nunez C/1B ($3.0K FD/$3.7K DK) — Nunez has never faced Boston starter Nick Pivetta before, but Pivetta fits the kind of profile that suits him. If you’re going to fit one of tonight’s high-profile pitchers in your lineups, you’ll need somebody like Nunez to slot in to save some cash, and there’s a good chance he repays you with a dinger, or at the very least, plus value for the price.

Full lineup advice

SportsLine’s team of DFS insiders has you covered for daily fantasy sports. Mike McClure has won almost $2 million playing DFS and is one of the top MLB DFS experts anywhere. Check out his MLB picks here, and be sure to see what he’s picking for NBA DFS here too. Use SportsLine’s all-new DFS Optimizer to get optimal NFL DFS picks from 10,000 simulations.


⚾ Stack Attack


Getty Images

Every day during the MLB season we’re going to pick a pitcher to attack by taking home run props on several different players from the same team. Tonight we are attacking Miami Marlins starter, Jose Urena.

The Stack Attack has hit a cold streak over the last week, but I’m confident it’s going to make up a lot of ground tonight with these four hitters:

  • Ronald Acuna +225
  • Marcell Ozuna +250
  • Freddie Freeman +250
  • Nick Markakis +600





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