After 214 days of waiting, the NFL is finally back.
The last time we saw an NFL game that counted came back on Feb. 7 when Tom Brady led the Buccaneers to a Super Bowl win in a game that was played in Tampa. As it turns out, not much has changed, because for tonight’s game, we’re going to once again see Brady lead the Buccaneers in a game that’s being played in Tampa. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
With the opener just hours away, we’ll obviously be covering the game extensively in today’s newsletter, but I also wanted to add some spice, so we’ll be looking at coaches who are already on the hot seat, which is fitting, because one of the coaches in tonight’s game is on our list.
As always, here’s your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get your friends to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. Alright, let’s get to the rundown.
1. Today’s show: Cowboys-Buccaneers betting preview
If you’re planning on betting any money on tonight’s game, then you’re going to want to make sure to listen to today’s episode of the podcast before you place any bets. For today’s show, Will Brinson brought on SportsLine gambling guru R.J. White.
Here are several props they like for the game:
- Tom Brady OVER 2.5 passing touchdowns (+165). R.J.’s take: “The Cowboys don’t have the talent at cornerback to cover all of Brady’s receiving options.”
- Mike Evans longest reception OVER 24.5 yards (-120). This is a prop that Brinson likes and he likes it for the same reason R.J. likes his Brady prop above: He doesn’t think the Cowboys secondary is going to be able to keep up with Evans.
- Ezekiel Elliott OVER 3.5 receptions (+110). Both Brinson and White liked this prop and that’s mostly because they think that the Buccaneers defense is so good that it will force Dak Prescott to dump off quite a few passes.
- CeeDee Lamb OVER 5.5 receptions (+120). R.J.’s take, “Dak’s going to throw a ton in this game and I think Lamb’s target share is going to go up this year. He had between five and eight catches in each of the games that Dak played in last year.”
For more props and their actual prediction for today’s game, be sure to click here so you can listen to today’s episode and subscribe to the best daily NFL podcast out there.
2. Getting you ready for the NFL Opener: Cowboys at Buccaneers
The 2021 NFL season kicks off tonight and based on what I’ve been reading about it so far, I’m not even sure they need to play the game because EVERYONE is picking the Buccaneers. With everyone on the Bucs’ bandwagon, the point spread for this game has jumped from -6.5 to -8.5 in favor of the Buccaneers and most of that jump came in the past week (The opening spread came out in May and didn’t move at all until August).
One big reason that more people have been leaning Tampa Bay over the past week is because the Cowboys will be playing without Zack Martin. The All-Pro guard is on the COVID list and won’t be playing tonight, which is going to leave the Cowboys short-handed.
My good buddy Jared Dubin put our deep-dive preview for this game here at CBSSports.com, and here’s how he sees the game playing out:
- Why the Cowboys can win: With Martin out, that’s going to put more pressure on Dak Prescott to get the passing game going early. If Dak can get Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb all involved, the Cowboys could have a puncher’s chance to steal the game away from the Buccaneers.
- Why the Buccaneers can win: The Buccaneers should have one of the best defenses in football this year and the Cowboys are going to have a tough time moving the ball on them. Dallas will be down a key offensive lineman and Dak Prescott will be taking his first game snap in 11 months, which makes this a situation where the Buccaneers defense is perfectly set up to feast.
You can get a full preview of the game from Dubin by clicking here.
Dubin’s pick: Buccaneers 33-23 over Cowboys.
My pick: Buccaneers 31-20 over Cowboys.
If you’re thinking about betting on the game, Tyler Sullivan put together a full gambling preview.
- ONE PROP TYLER LIKES: Ezekiel Elliott OVER 20.5 receiving yards (-120): “In the four full games with Prescott to begin last season, Elliott averaged 7.5 targets, 5.8 receptions, and 39.8 receiving yards per game.”
- ONE PROP I LIKE: First scoring play: Buccaneers TD (+145): This is going to go one of two ways: If the Buccaneers get the ball first, I think they’re going to drive straight down the field and score. If the Cowboys get the ball first, I think Tampa’s defense is going to be so amp’d up that they’ll easily force a punt and then the Bucs’ offense will go straight down the field and score.
You can check out Sullivan’s full gambling preview by clicking here.
3. NFL coaches on the hot seat heading into 2021
The 2021 NFL season hasn’t even kicked off yet, but there are definitely already some coaches on the hot seat and one of them will be on the sideline tonight in Tampa and just so you know, we’re not talking about Bruce Arians.
With Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy on the hot seat, we thought right now would be a good time to unveil our initial 2021 hot seat rankings, which was compiled by our Patrik Walker.
1. Texans coach David Culley
2. Broncos coach Vic Fangio
3. Bears coach Matt Nagy
4. Giants coach Joe Judge
5. Panthers coach Matt Rhule
6. Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy
7. Bengals coach Zac Taylor
If you want to know why Culley’s at the top of the list, you’ll have to click here so you can read Walker’s full explanation for his rankings. One reason McCarthy and Taylor aren’t ranked higher is because Jerry Jones and Mike Brown almost never fire their coaches mid-season, which makes it highly unlikely that either guy will get his pink slip before the end of 2021.
4. Predicting the teams who will be playing in the Super Bowl
After 10 straight days of bombarding you with predictions for the 2021 NFL season, we’re finally ready to give you the biggest prediction of them all: The identity of the team that’s going to win Super Bowl LVI. To make this happen, we rounded up seven or our writers here at CBSSports.com and asked them to pick their playoff teams from each conference and their Super Bowl teams.
After going through all the votes, I have found that everyone at CBS is on the Bills bandwagon, which means there’s now a 90% chance it’s going to crash before the end of the season.
Of our seven voters, we’re predicting six different teams to make it to the Super Bowl and five different teams to win it:
Bills: Five votes to get to the Super Bowl (Two of those five voters have Buffalo winning it all)
Buccaneers: Two votes to get to the Super Bowl (One of those two voters has TB winning it all)
Packers: Two votes to get to the Super Bowl (One of those two voters has GB winning it all)
Chiefs: Two votes to get to the Super Bowl (Both voters have KC winning it all)
Rams: Two votes to get to the Super Bowl (Neither voter is picking the Rams to win it all)
49ers: One vote to get to the Super Bowl (Will Brinson thinks the 49ers are going to win it all).
If you want to check out our entire prediction page, which includes us predicting each division winner and all 14 playoff teams, then you’re going to want to click here.
If you click over, here are some quick nuggets that you’ll see:
- Two divisions up in the air. In both the NFC West and AFC North, three of the four teams received at least one vote to finish in first place.
- These teams have no hope for the postseason. There were THIRTEEN teams that received exactly zero votes for the playoffs, and those teams were: The Dolphins, Jets, Colts, Jaguars, Texans, Bengals, Raiders, Giants, Eagles, Bears, Lions, Panthers and Falcons. The Colts and Dolphins are probably the two most surprising names on that list.
- No one knows what to expect from the Cowboys or Seahawks. These two teams were the only ones that received at least one vote to finish in first, second, third, and fourth in their respective divisions.
Again, to check out the entire story, be sure to click here.
5. Tom Brady could break a major record tonight
Tom Brady could break a major NFL record tonight, although it’s a record that he would probably rather not be breaking. If Brady gets sacked four times against the Cowboys, he’ll tie Brett Favre’s record as the most sacked quarterback in NFL history.
Brady is actually neck-and-neck with Ben Roethlisberger for the title of most sacked quarterback, which is definitely a race that no one wants to win.
Here’s a list of the top-five most sacked quarterbacks in NFL history:
1. Brett Favre: 525 times sacked
2. Tom Brady: 521
T-3. Ben Roethlisberger: 516
T-3. John Elway: 516
5. Dave Krieg: 494
Looking at that list, it make you wonder how Brady has lasted this long. I now also understand why Roethlisberger is always banged up. The man entered the NFL four years AFTER Brady and he’s been sacked almost as many times as the Buccaneers quarterback. Of course, it might not matter who sets the record, because I’m pretty sure Russell Wilson is going to break it. Wilson has already been sacked 394 times in just nine seasons. If Wilson plays just 15 years, which is completely possible — Brady is headed into his 22nd season and Big Ben is headed into his 18th — he’ll be on pace to take 657 sacks, which would smash the record.
If you want to take a deeper look at the sack record, be sure to click here.
6. Rapid-fire roundup
It’s been a busy 24 hours in the NFL and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Saints make a trade for Bradley Roby. For the second time this week, the Saints have added some serious depth in the secondary. Just one day after signing Demond Trufant, the team also pulled off a trade with the Texans to acquire Roby. This is a huge trade for New Orleans and that’s because Roby will almost certainly be a starter, although he’ll be unavailable for the opener due to a suspension. It’s not yet clear what the Texans got in return, but it won’t be surprising if it’s in the range of a third-round pick.
- Saints likely to return to New Orleans for their second home game. The Saints had to move their opener against the Packers to Jacksonville, but right now, that looks like the only game they’ll have to move this year. The mayor of New Orleans expects the team to be able to return home for its second home game, which will be played in Week 4 (Oct. 3) against the Giants.
- Cam Newton not retiring. With Newton’s football future up in the air after getting cut by the Patriots, we do know one thing for sure going forward: He’s not planning to retire. The free agent quarterback made that clear in a post to social media on Wednesday.
- Vikings tackle gets monstrous extension. Brian O’Neill has agreed to an extension with the Vikings that will make him the second-highest paid right tackle in the NFL (Behind only Ryan Ramczyk of the Saints). O’Neill’s five-year extension is worth a total of $92.5 million and it includes $49 million in guaranteed money.
- T.J. Watt actually practiced. Watt still doesn’t have a new deal in place, but he did return to practice on Wednesday, which could be a sign that he plans to play in Week 1 against the Bills. Watt got a huge show of support from Ben Roethlisberger on Wednesday, who said, “Pay the man whatever he wants.” Maybe Watt should hire Big Ben as his agent.
- No chance Davante Adams contract gets done with Packers before the start of the season. It looks like Adams has given up hope of getting an extension done with the Packers. The receiver said Wednesday that there’s “no chance” the two sides will be able to agree to a deal. Without a deal in place, the Packers could be stuck in a spot where they have to franchise tag him following the 2021 season..
