Ladies and gentlemen, I have done the math, and I want you to know that between now and February 13, when Super Bowl 56 takes place, we will have at least one football game played on 107 of 157 days. Did you feel a tingle of excitement reading that sentence because I did writing it.
The 2021 NFL season kicks off tonight with the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking on the most popular team to not do anything relevant for a quarter-century, the Dallas Cowboys. And I’m pumped. So pumped that tonight’s entire newsletter is dedicated to the game.
I’ve got three plays for you to take in tonight’s game because you know you’re going to be watching. All the preseason talk is over. Your fantasy drafts have concluded. The actual games begin tonight.
Now let’s catch up on today’s news and then get to work.
- Our NFL staff share all their predictions for the 2021 season.
- Just in case all the betting information I’m about to share with you for tonight isn’t enough.
- All 32 NFL backup QBs ranked. The wrong guy is at No. 1.
- Stefon Diggs says he was “a bad teammate” in Minnesota.
Now let’s bet some NFL football.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Cowboys at Buccaneers, 8:20 p.m. | TV: NBC
The Pick: Cowboys Under 20.5 points (-110): I have a couple of leans when handicapping this game from the standard spread and point total perspective, but nothing I love. When it comes to the spread, I lean toward Tampa Bay, and when it comes to the total, I’m a bigger fan of the under. I wasn’t sure which one I wanted to take when clarity slapped me in the face like a ton of bricks.
I like Tampa and the under for the same reasons: I’m skeptical about the Cowboys offense tonight. Dallas will be without Zack Martin on the offensive line tonight, which is a tremendous loss for them. It impacts both their run game and pass protection. While Martin has been healthy for most of his career, he’s missed six games for Dallas last season, and it’s difficult to ignore how it impacted the Dallas offense.
The Coach, Jonathan Coachman, is joined by Mike McClure, Allan Bell, Matt Severance and Larry Hartstein to dish out Thursday’s best bets. Download and follow The Early Edge on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
In the eight games Martin started and finished, Dallas averaged 27.8 points per game. In the eight games Martin played 25% of the snaps or fewer on offense, Dallas averaged 19.6 points per game. That’s a steep drop-off, and while losing Dak Prescott impacts those numbers too, the Cowboys offense was better in the games Andy Dalton started with Martin too.
Tonight the Cowboys will be without a key offensive lineman against a Tampa defensive front that was one of the best in the NFL last season and was a big reason why the Bucs won the Super Bowl. So instead of playing the spread and total, I’m fading the Dallas offense.
Key Trend: Dallas averaged only 19.6 points per game when Zack Martin didn’t start or played in fewer than 25% of snaps last season.
Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine expert R.J. White, who ended the 2020 season on an 80-59 run on NFL expert picks, has released his plays for tonight’s game, and you’ll want to see what he has to say.
💰The Picks
🏈 NFL
Cowboys at Buccaneers, 8:20 p.m | TV: NBC
The Pick: Mike Evans to score a TD (+100) — Do you remember how last season started for Mike Evans? Through Tampa’s first five games of the season, he caught six touchdown passes, with at least one in each game. It was a trend that continued throughout nearly the entire season. Between the regular season and playoffs, Evans caught 15 touchdown passes overall, scoring in 12 of the 19 games he played most of (he saw only 16% of snaps in Tampa’s regular-season finale).
Evans has always been a red-zone target thanks to his size and ability to box out defensive backs, and he brings big-play potential. It’s why he’s Tom Brady‘s favorite target and had 25 more targets than anybody else on the team last season. Evans also led the Bucs in red-zone targets with 18 last season.
Key Trend: Mike Evans caught a touchdown in 12 of 19 games last season.
🏈 NFL
Cowboys at Buccaneers, 8:20 p.m | TV: NBC
The Pick: Blake Jarwin Over 1.5 receptions (-180) — Blake Jarwin Hive, stand up! OK, so maybe there isn’t a Blake Jarwin Hive, but Jarwin will be returning from an injury that cost him nearly the entire 2020 season, and we’re hoping he can Jar-win us some money. When Jarwin last played an entire season in 2019, he caught 31 passes in 15 games or just over two receptions per game. But even if we don’t want to look at the numbers, there’s plenty of common sense to consider here.
Pretend you’re the Tampa Bay defensive coordinator. You’re going against a Cowboys offense with Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. Is Blake Jarwin going to be the focus of your defense? Of course not; he’s going to be the guy you’ll gladly let catch a couple of passes if it means you can take the more significant threats out of the picture. So we’re betting on little ol’ Blake Jarwin to grab a couple of passes for us.
Key Trend: Since 2019, including the playoffs, Jarwin has caught at least two passes in 11 of 19 games.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Looking to play a little DFS tonight? SportsLine’s DFS guru Mike McClure is sharing his optimal plays for tonight’s single-game slate.
⚾ MLB Underdog Parlay
Yesterday’s underdog parlay hit, so why not try and keep the momentum going with another one? We’re going to need something to pay attention to during commercials, so let’s take this two-leg parlay that pays +320.
- Royals (+105)
- Blue Jays (+105)
